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Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 55

2018-10-10 04:40:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 100240 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)

2018-10-10 04:40:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EVERLASTING LESLIE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 9 the center of Leslie was located near 29.5, -42.6 with movement SSE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 55

2018-10-10 04:40:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100239 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 ...EVERLASTING LESLIE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 42.6W ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 42.6 West. Leslie is moving toward the south-southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A slower motion and a turn toward the east-northeast or northeast is expected by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours before weakening is anticipated by the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 55

2018-10-10 04:39:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 100238 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 42.6W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 160 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 120SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 210SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 42.6W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 42.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.4N 42.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 130SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.0N 41.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.6N 39.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.9N 36.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.2N 27.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 32.0N 21.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.0N 22.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 42.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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