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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2018-10-10 22:43:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 20:43:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 21:22:06 GMT
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 58
2018-10-10 22:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 102042 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 58 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 Leslie has held nearly steady since this morning. Recent microwave data indicate that the cyclone still has a fairly well-defined inner-core that has persisted, though the deepest convection has fluctuated since last night. Satellite intensity estimates have fluctuated with the convection, but still support an initial value of 65 kt for this advisory. The last few IR and visible images before sunset suggest that Leslie may be developing a banding eye, and it's possible the intensity estimate is a little conservative. The track uncertainty is hopefully beginning to decrease a little. The most recent GFS and ECMWF ensembles are converging on a solution where Leslie accelerates east-northeastward on the south side of a mid-latitude trough, before separating from the trough over the weekend. The cyclone could then turn southward, and eventually back westward as a much weaker tropical cyclone or remnant low. This is generally consistent with previous NHC forecasts, so no large changes were required to the NHC forecast which is heavily based on the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Leslie is still expected to strengthen soon, and there has been no significant change to the intensity forecast. By 72 h, if not sooner, the hurricane will begin to encounter colder ocean waters and high shear, which should cause it to weaken. If Leslie follows the forecast track, it is possible that the system could become a post-tropical remnant low by early next week, and this is forecast by some of the global models. However, this is not explicitly shown in the NHC forecast and Leslie's strength and status early next week will likely heavily depend on its track at that time. The official forecast is close to the intensity consensus at all forecast hours, and the intensity model spread is not very large. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 27.8N 41.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 28.0N 40.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 29.0N 38.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 30.4N 33.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 31.5N 28.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 32.0N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 30.0N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 27.0N 26.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 58
2018-10-10 22:41:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 102040 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 58 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-10 22:40:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE LIKELY TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOMORROW... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 10 the center of Leslie was located near 27.8, -41.9 with movement E at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 58
2018-10-10 22:40:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 102040 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 58 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 ...LESLIE LIKELY TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 41.9W ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 41.9 West. Leslie is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster motion toward the east-northeast will likely begin by tomorrow, and this general motion should continue through the early weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, but weakening should begin by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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