je.st

Home › leslie

Tag: leslie

Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 56

2018-10-10 10:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100833 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 56 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 ...LESLIE NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD... ...FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 42.6W ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 175 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 42.6 West. Leslie is moving toward the south near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower south- southeastward motion is expected today, followed by a east- northeastward motion tonight through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, but weakening should begin by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number public advisory hurricane

Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 56

2018-10-10 10:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 100833 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 56 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number speed wind hurricane

Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 56

2018-10-10 10:33:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 100832 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 56 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 42.6W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 175 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 120SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 240SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 42.6W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 42.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.0N 42.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 130SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.1N 40.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.1N 38.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 130SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.5N 34.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 140SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.5N 25.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 30.5N 21.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 28.5N 23.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 42.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number advisory forecast hurricane

Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 55

2018-10-10 04:43:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100243 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 Satellite and microwave data indicate that Leslie has become a hurricane again, almost exactly a week after it did the first time. A WindSat pass from earlier today showed the development of an eye feature, and with the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB at hurricane strength, the initial wind speed is set to 65 kt. The latest GOES-16 proxy visible imagery suggests that a ragged eye has formed, although the eyewall is open on the southwestern side. Leslie is atypically intensifying while moving south-southeastward at 8 kt. The hurricane should continue to lose latitude for a day or so then get accelerated east-northeastward by a mid-latitude trough until Friday. After that time, there is a ginormous spread in the model ensembles with Leslie's final destination ranging from Ireland all the way to missing the trough and turning around to the southwest due to a building eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. Compared to 12 hours ago, more of the ensemble members are showing Leslie getting left behind, which is also reflected in the latest deterministic runs as well. Something tells me that Leslie has at least one more trick up its sleeve, so the official forecast shows this trend, but is very low confidence. With fairly low shear and marginally warm waters for the next day or two, there is no reason to expect that Leslie won't continue to intensify. Model guidance is higher than the last cycle, with the normally conservative ECMWF and GFS models even suggesting that Leslie becomes a category 2 hurricane in a couple of days. Most of the rest of the guidance is lower than those models, but the intensity forecast is shaded in the direction of the ECMWF/GFS, and is higher than the last NHC prediction. After that time, an increase in shear and lower SSTs should cause Leslie to weaken. It is even possible it will become a post-tropical cyclone by day 5, but I'm not going to show that at this time since I was too premature last night in this transition. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 29.5N 42.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 28.4N 42.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 28.0N 41.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 28.6N 39.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 29.9N 36.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 32.2N 27.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 32.0N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 30.0N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane