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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2018-10-02 04:41:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 975 FONT13 KNHC 020241 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 23
2018-10-02 04:41:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 493 WTNT23 KNHC 020241 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 55.0W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 420SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 55.0W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 54.8W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.3N 55.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 10SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.2N 56.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.9N 56.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.6N 56.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 34.4N 55.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 37.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 37.3N 52.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 55.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-01 22:38:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 20:38:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 21:22:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 22
2018-10-01 22:36:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 184 WTNT43 KNHC 012036 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 The cloud pattern of Leslie has improved throughout the day, and the system now has a ragged eye with multiple mesovorticies within it. In addition, the associated convection has become more symmetric this afternoon, but the cloud tops are not very cold south of the center. Even though the system looks better organized, the satellite intensity estimates are again unchanged. Accordingly, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt near the high end of the satellite estimates. Leslie will likely strengthen gradually during the next day or so as it heads toward slightly warmer SSTs and remains in relatively low wind shear conditions. Most of the models show Leslie becoming a hurricane on Tuesday, and the NHC forecast follows that guidance. Leslie is expected to move north-northeastward back over its own upwelled cool waters late this week and this weekend, which should promote a gradual weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous one and in line with the HCCA and IVCN models. Leslie continues to drift to the southwest on the east side of a mid-level high. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. Leslie is expected to continue to move slowly southward to southwestward in weak steering currents during the next couple of days. Thereafter, a developing shortwave trough to the west of Leslie should cause it to move north-northeastward to northeastward at a slightly faster pace. The guidance has shifted south and west this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in those directions. Regardless of the details of the forecast track, there is high confidence that Leslie will meander for quite a while over the central Atlantic. Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Although the swells will diminish slightly by Tuesday, they are expected to increase again over the Bahamas and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles late Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 32.8N 54.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 31.9N 55.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 30.9N 55.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 30.2N 56.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 30.0N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 33.3N 55.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 36.4N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 37.2N 52.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-01 22:36:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 1 the center of Leslie was located near 32.8, -54.6 with movement SW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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