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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-22 22:34:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2020 20:34:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2020 21:24:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-07-22 22:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 222032 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 Satellite imagery suggests that Gonzalo's intensification has paused since the last advisory. The cyclone continues to show a central dense overcast, and microwave imagery indicates a small convective ring present under the overcast. However, the CDO has become a bit ragged, and the other banding seen earlier has dissipated. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 45-55 kt range, the the initial intensity remains a possibly conservative 45 kt. The initial motion is now 270/12. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy. Gonzalo is on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the storm generally westward at a faster forward speed for the next 60 h or so. After that time, a motion toward the west-northwest is expected. The new NHC forecast track is again little changed from the previous track, and it lies very close to the consensus models. The intensity forecast remains very problematic and of low confidence. On one side, the cyclone structure, light shear environment,and warm sea surface temperatures suggest strengthening, possibly even rapidly, should occur. In addition, the SHIPS-based guidance and the HWRF still make the system a hurricane. On the other side, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF models continue to forecast the system to weaken to an open wave by 120 h, possibly due to dry air entrainment and large-scale subsidence, and microwave imagery suggests that a tongue of drier air is present west and southwest of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast again compromises between these extremes, showing Gonzalo peaking as a hurricane in 36-48 h, followed by weakening in deference to the GFS/UKMET/ECMWF. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. As noted before, the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be issued sometime on Thursday. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is expected to move near or over the southern Windward Islands this weekend, and could bring direct impacts from winds and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude and timing of those impacts, interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 9.9N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 10.0N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 10.1N 49.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 10.3N 51.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 12.1N 60.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 14.0N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 15.0N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-07-22 22:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 222031 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) 1(20) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 11(28) X(28) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 4(27) X(27) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) X(23) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) X(21) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-22 22:31:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Jul 22 the center of Gonzalo was located near 9.9, -45.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 5
2020-07-22 22:31:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 222031 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 ...GONZALO MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.9N 45.0W ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 45.0 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo would approach the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday. Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone, as tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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