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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-07-21 22:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212037 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 Douglas appears to have been trying to scour out a little bit of dry air on its western side during the day, although recent visible images suggest that deep convection is attempting to wrap entirely around the center. Because the convective pattern didn't change much from earlier, Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain T3.5/55 kt, so the initial intensity is held steady on this advisory. Strong ridging to the north of Douglas continues to impart a west-southwestward motion of the cyclone, or 255/13 kt. As mentioned this morning, the ridge is likely to take on a more east-west orientation as a mid-/upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands retrogrades westward, and this pattern evolution will allow Douglas to turn westward by tonight and then west-northwestward by late Wednesday. That general motion is forecast to continue for the remainder of the 5-day forecast period. The track guidance still showcases a faster ECMWF and slower GFS and HWRF solutions, and the overall envelope and model consensus aids have again nudged northward. The updated track forecast is therefore a little north of the previous one, mainly after 48 hours through day 5. Once deep convection can isolate Douglas's center from the ambient environment, low shear and warm sea surface temperatures of 28-29 degrees Celsius should allow intensification to resume. Despite this morning's hiatus in strengthening, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) guidance continues to key in on a significant chance of RI during the next day or two. Therefore, the intensity forecast from this morning has been left unchanged, and it still generally lies between the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble, closer to the higher end of the guidance envelope. Douglas should reach its peak intensity in about 48 hours, after which time oceanic heat content values drop to zero, which should cause some gradual weakening. Based on a partial ASCAT-A pass, Douglas's tropical-storm-force wind radii were increased on the northern side. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 12.1N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 11.9N 127.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 12.1N 129.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 13.0N 131.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 14.4N 134.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 15.7N 137.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 16.9N 140.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 18.5N 146.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 19.0N 151.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Douglas (EP3/EP082020)
2020-07-21 22:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM HST Tue Jul 21 the center of Douglas was located near 12.1, -125.4 with movement WSW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Douglas Public Advisory Number 6
2020-07-21 22:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 212037 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 ...DOUGLAS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 125.4W ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 2035 MI...3280 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 125.4 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-southwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west at a slightly slower forward speed is expected by this evening, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and some acceleration late Wednesday. The west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue at least through Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Douglas could become a hurricane later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-07-21 22:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 212037 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 31(31) 27(58) X(58) X(58) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 21(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) X(22) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-07-21 22:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 212036 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 125.4W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 125.4W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 124.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 11.9N 127.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.1N 129.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.0N 131.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 134.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.7N 137.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.9N 140.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 146.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.0N 151.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 125.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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