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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-07-22 04:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 This afternoon's satellite presentation reveals a tropical cyclone that's struggling with the inhibiting factors from mid-level dry air intrusion. Cloud tops near the center of circulation have warmed considerably during the past few hours, and the primary convective band in the east semicircle has become a bit fragmented. A blend of an earlier SATCON of 52 kt, an ADT objective estimate of 51 kt and a Dvorak satellite classification of T3.5 from both TAFB and SAB supports holding the initial intensity at 55 kt, although the aforementioned recent changes in the cloud pattern may consider this as a bit generous. The better performing HFIP HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity guidance still show Douglas shaking off the dry air invasion and strengthening into a hurricane in 12 hours, and the official forecast reflects this. The consensus intensity models and the FV3/GFS SHIPS show the cyclone reaching a peak intensity in around two days. Afterward, Douglas will be moving over 25-deg-C oceanic temperatures and into stable air mass. These negative contributions should, therefore, induce a slow weakening trend through day 5. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/12 kt within the mid-tropospheric easterly steering flow provided by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north of Douglas. This ridge is forecast to gradually build westward in response to a retreating large cut-off low near the Hawaiian Islands. As a result, Douglas should progressively turn West-northwestward by late Wednesday. and this general motion is forecast to continue for the remainder of the 5-day forecast period. The official NHC forecast is quite similar to the previous one with only a slight adjustment to the right beyond 72 hours through 120 hours in order to conform to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 12.1N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 12.1N 128.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 12.6N 130.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 13.6N 133.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 15.1N 136.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 16.4N 138.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 17.5N 141.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 18.8N 147.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 19.4N 153.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-07-22 04:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 220232 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 58(61) 3(64) X(64) X(64) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Douglas (EP3/EP082020)
2020-07-22 04:31:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS MOVING DUE WEST WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH ... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... As of 5:00 PM HST Tue Jul 21 the center of Douglas was located near 12.1, -126.7 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Douglas Public Advisory Number 7
2020-07-22 04:31:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 220231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 ...DOUGLAS MOVING DUE WEST WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH ... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 126.7W ABOUT 1330 MI...2145 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1955 MI...3145 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 126.7 West. Douglas is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and some acceleration is forecast late Wednesday. The west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue at least through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Douglas could become a hurricane tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-07-22 04:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 220231 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 126.7W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 126.7W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 126.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.1N 128.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.6N 130.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.6N 133.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.1N 136.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.4N 138.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N 141.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.8N 147.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.4N 153.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 126.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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