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Tropical Storm Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-07-21 16:38:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 211438 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 35(43) 1(44) X(44) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 9(30) X(30) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Douglas Graphics
2020-07-21 10:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 08:37:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 08:37:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-07-21 10:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 210835 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 1(43) X(43) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) X(32) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Douglas (EP3/EP082020)
2020-07-21 10:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Mon Jul 20 the center of Douglas was located near 13.0, -122.8 with movement WSW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Douglas Public Advisory Number 4
2020-07-21 10:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 210835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 ...DOUGLAS STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 122.8W ABOUT 1085 MI...1750 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 122.8 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion should continue into Tuesday morning. A westward motion is forecast by Tuesday afternoon and continue into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Douglas is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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