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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-07-22 16:39:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 221438 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 43.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 43.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 43.0W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 10.0N 45.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.0N 47.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 10.1N 50.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.4N 52.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.7N 55.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.4N 58.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 13.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 71.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 43.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-22 14:48:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GONZALO... As of 8:50 AM AST Wed Jul 22 the center of Gonzalo was located near 9.9, -43.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Update Statement
2020-07-22 14:48:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 850 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT62 KNHC 221248 TCUAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 850 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GONZALO... Satellite data indicate that Tropical Depression Seven has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Gonzalo with 45 mph (75 km/h) winds. The intensity forecast will be updated in the regular advisory at 11 AM AST...1500 UTC. SUMMARY OF 850 AM AST...1250 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.9N 43.1W ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Douglas Graphics
2020-07-22 10:35:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2020 08:35:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2020 09:31:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-22 10:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220834 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 The overall appearance of Douglas has changed little over the past several hours. Satellite images show a continuation of dry air trying to be worked out of the eastern portion of the cyclone's circulation. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB indicate that the initial advisory intensity remains 55 kt. The majority of intensity guidance continues to suggest that Douglas will soon overcome the dry air that has been holding the cyclone back from strengthening. And, the system is forecast to remain in a favorable environment for intensification for the next day or so. Beyond 36 h, the combination of cooler SSTs and dry air should cause Douglas to slowly weaken. The latest NHC forecast is a blend of the corrected consensus HCCA and the ICON and IVCN consensus aids. Based on this forecast, Douglas should become a hurricane sometime on Wednesday. Douglas is moving westward at around 13 kt. The ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to become oriented east-to-west while building westward over the next day or so. This should induce a gradual turn to the west-northwest along with a slight increase in forward speed. This general west-northwest motion is then forecast to continue through the remainder of the 5-day period. The model guidance has trended a bit faster throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast now lies in between the clustered consensus aids and the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 11.9N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 12.0N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 12.9N 132.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 14.1N 135.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 15.5N 137.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 16.7N 140.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.8N 143.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 19.1N 149.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 19.8N 155.3W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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