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Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 6
2020-07-10 22:46:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 102046 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...AND LONG ISLAND... ...FAY MAKES LANDFALL JUST NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.5N 74.3W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey, including southern Delaware Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Great Egg Inlet New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), satellite imagery indicated that the center of Tropical Storm Fay has made landfall along the coast of New Jersey about 10 miles (15 km) north-northeast of Atlantic City, near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 74.3 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northward to north- northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Fay will move near or over portions of the New Jersey coast this evening and then move inland over southeastern New York and western New England tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected tonight, especially after the Fay moves farther inland. Fay is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Saturday morning and dissipate on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center. A Weatherflow site at Larchmont Harbor, New York, recently reported a sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a wind gust of 41 mph (67 km/h). JFK airport in New York City recently reported a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches along and near its track from northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania northeast across New Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New England. This rain could result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible, but widespread river flooding is not expected. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning through tonight. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two are possible late this afternoon and evening across coastal areas of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-07-10 22:46:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 102046 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CONCORD NH 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BOSTON MA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PROVIDENCE RI 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW HAVEN CT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HARTFORD CT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW LONDON CT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALBANY NY 34 7 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONTAUK POINT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLIP NY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEWARK NJ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TRENTON NJ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NWS EARLE NJ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALLENTOWN PA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PHILADELPHIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ATLANTIC CITY 34 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) DOVER DE 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) OCEAN CITY MD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WALLOPS CDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-07-10 22:45:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 150 WTNT21 KNHC 102045 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF GREAT EGG INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GREAT EGG INLET NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 74.3W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 160SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 160SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 74.3W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.7N 73.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.7N 72.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 49.6N 69.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 74.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-07-10 22:45:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 102045 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 1 58(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 120W 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER KODAMA
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-07-10 22:44:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 605 WTPZ45 KNHC 102044 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Satellite images continue to show a degradation of Cristina's appearance, with cloud tops warming and deep convection mainly limited to the southeastern semicircle. The low level center is clearly visible, but its motion is erratic, taking a looping trajectory through the day. The weakening is likely due to the cyclone's passage over cooler waters. Objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 43 kt to 65 kt. For this forecast package, the initial intensity will be kept at 60 kt based on a blend of the available estimates. The initial motion of Cristina is 285/15 kt. The synoptic scale guidance indicates that a mid-level ridge over the southwestern U.S. will strengthen over the next couple of days. As the ridge strengthens, Cristina is expected to gradually turn west. The objective aids remain relatively tightly packed. The forecast has been adjusted slightly north of the previous forecast and is close to the HCCA guidance. It appears Cristina's opportunity to become a hurricane has passed as the cyclone moves over cooler waters. The objective aids indicate weakening over the next several days due to the cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier, more stable air mass along the forecast track. Cristina is forecast to become a remnant low by 72 hours, though some of the models indicate this process may take a little longer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.8N 115.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 20.1N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 20.5N 120.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 20.9N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 21.2N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 21.6N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 21.9N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kodama
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