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Tropical Storm Fay Graphics
2020-07-10 10:43:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 08:43:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 09:24:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-07-10 10:43:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100843 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Cristina has become better organized during the past several hours. A curved band wraps almost completely around the center, and a ragged eye has occasionally been apparent in satellite images. The cyclone is beginning to look like a hurricane, but there is still a large spread in the latest satellite intensity estimates, ranging from 45 to 77 kt. In addition, a recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of only 45 kt. Based on a compromise of all of this data, the initial intensity remains 60 kt for this advisory. Cristina could still become a hurricane today while it remains over waters warmer than 26 C and in low vertical wind shear conditions. However, by tonight the storm will likely be moving over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air mass. The combination of these negative factors for the storm should promote a steady weakening trend beginning tonight, and ultimately Cristina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and in line with the consensus models IVCN and HCCA. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should continue to steer Cristina to the west-northwest during the next couple of days. Beyond that time, when Cristina becomes a weak and shallow system, a turn to the west is expected in the low-level flow. The track models remain tightly clustered, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.8N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 19.7N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 20.4N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 20.9N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 21.3N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 21.6N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 22.0N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-07-10 10:42:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 720 FOPZ15 KNHC 100842 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 19 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 115W 34 85 10(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 20N 115W 50 25 37(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 115W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 30(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-10 10:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA ALMOST A HURRICANE... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 the center of Cristina was located near 18.8, -113.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-10 10:42:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100842 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay early this morning found that the storm had strengthened slightly, with maximum SFMR-observed surface winds near 45 kt. Additionally, the minimum central pressure had fallen a few mb since yesterday. Since the center of the cyclone is exposed on the southwest side of the main area of deep convection, and southwesterly shear over the system is forecast to persist, little if any additional strengthening is anticipated before landfall. Weakening should commence after the center moves inland in 12-24 hours. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest model consensus aids. Center fixes from the Air Force plane show that the storm continues moving northward at a slightly faster pace, or 360/9 kt. During the next couple of days, Fay should move between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a short-wave trough dropping into the Ohio Valley region. There has been little change to the official track forecast, which remains close to the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 37.4N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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