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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-07-10 16:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 305 WTNT41 KNHC 101451 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Fay's circulation currently consists of a small low-level center rotating around inside of a larger circulation. Deep convection is displaced well to the north and southeast of the center as water vapor imagery shows dry air being wrapped into the circulation. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay this morning found that the pressure has fallen to around 999 mb, and based on a blend of the SFMR peak winds of 45 kt and a 925-mb peak flight level wind of 65 kt, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt for this advisory. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. Little change in strength is expected before Fay's center moves inland later today or this evening, with weakening expected after that time. While a 48-h forecast point is provided, most of the models show the vortex dissipating by that time. The initial motion estimate is 005/10. Fay will be steered generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which lies close to the previous one and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to affect areas well away from the cyclone's center. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 38.4N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1200Z 43.2N 73.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/0000Z 47.1N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1200Z 50.7N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 5
2020-07-10 16:49:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 101449 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.4N 74.5W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Fenwick Island Delaware to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound * Southern Delaware Bay A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 74.5 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon and evening and move inland over the mid-Atlantic and northeast United States tonight and Saturday. Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today while the center remains over water. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland, and Fay is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by early Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A Weatherflow station at Lewes, Delaware, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 50 mph (80 km/h). A National Ocean Service observing site at Lewes recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a wind gust of 49 mph (79 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. The rain may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area through tonight. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today across coastal areas of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-10 16:37:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 14:37:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 15:31:52 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-07-10 16:36:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101436 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Cristina's appearance on satellite has not improved over the past several hours. In fact, cloud tops are beginning to warm and some of the convection has begun to erode over the northern portion of the circulation. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support keeping the initial intensity at 60 kt. However, this may be a little generous due to the lower values suggested by the objective satellite intensity estimates as well as an earlier ASCAT pass showing maximum winds of only 45 kt. It is becoming less likely that Cristina will become a hurricane as the storm is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm later today and move into a drier and more stable air mass. Once the cyclone enters this unfavorable environment a weakening trend should begin. By 72 h, Cristina is expected to become a remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly downward in the near term, and no longer shows Cristina reaching hurricane strength. The remainder of the intensity forecast is similar to the previous official forecast. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should continue to steer Cristina to the west-northwest through tonight. As Cristina weakens and becomes a shallow system, a gradual turn toward the west is expected in the low-level flow. The track models remain tightly clustered, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 19.1N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 20.3N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 20.6N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 20.9N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 22.8N 139.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-10 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA STILL A TROPICAL STORM... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 the center of Cristina was located near 19.1, -114.2 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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