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Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-07-10 10:42:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 100842 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORTLAND ME 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CONCORD NH 34 X 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WORCESTER MA 34 X 16(16) 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 25(25) 7(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HYANNIS MA 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NANTUCKET MA 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 2 14(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 1 37(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 1 36(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X 31(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) HARTFORD CT 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 1 24(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ALBANY NY 34 X 14(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ALBANY NY 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 23(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 6 19(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ISLIP NY 34 4 37(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) ISLIP NY 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 11 35(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 3 33(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 4 26(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NEWARK NJ 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 5 14(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NWS EARLE NJ 34 11 28(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PHILADELPHIA 34 7 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ATLANTIC CITY 34 39 4(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) ATLANTIC CITY 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 36 X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) OCEAN CITY MD 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NORFOLK NAS 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 15
2020-07-10 10:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 100842 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...CRISTINA ALMOST A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 113.0W ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 113.0 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion with a gradual bend to the west is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristina could become a hurricane later today, however, a weakening trend should begin by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-07-10 10:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100842 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.0W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.0W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.7N 114.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.4N 117.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.9N 120.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.3N 122.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.6N 125.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 127.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062020)
2020-07-10 10:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FAY SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 the center of Fay was located near 37.4, -74.8 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-07-10 10:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 154 WTNT21 KNHC 100841 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 74.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 74.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 74.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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