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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-10 04:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:35:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:35:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-07-10 04:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 100234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 10 23(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA CLARION 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 4 84(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 20N 115W 50 X 51(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 115W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 19(19) 15(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-10 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 the center of Cristina was located near 18.4, -111.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 14
2020-07-10 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 100234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 ...CRISTINA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 111.9W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 111.9 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual bend to the west is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristina could become a hurricane on Friday before weakening begins over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-07-10 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100234 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Cristina's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat during the past several hours, with deep convection on the wane and some evidence of dry air near the center. Still, microwave data does show a large banding pattern with a mid-level core present, suggesting there might be more than meets the eye than just conventional satellite imagery. The current intensity of the storm is difficult to ascertain, as estimates from generally credible techniques range from 45 kt to 77 kt on this package. It is probably best to keep the initial wind speed 60 kt for now, and we will see if the intensity becomes more clear overnight. The storm has about a day over marginally warm waters in light shear conditions before SSTs begin to cool, and eventually more significant dry air is entrained into the inner core. Thus some strengthening is anticipated on Friday, and Cristina should start a gradual weakening over the weekend through early next week. The cyclone should have a challenging time producing convection over sub-23C waters, which happens in about 72 hours, so that is the time chosen for post-tropical transition. This is earlier than the previous forecast and best matches a GFS/ECMWF blend. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast with guidance in good agreement at this time. Christina continues moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen over the next day or so, which should force the storm in a similar direction but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is expected. The forecast track is a little slower than the previous one at long range, otherwise the track is basically an update of the earlier track prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 18.4N 111.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 19.1N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.8N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 21.6N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 21.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0000Z 22.2N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 22.5N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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