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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 16
2020-07-10 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 101435 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...CRISTINA STILL A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 114.2W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 114.2 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristina is expected to begin weakening tonight, and is forecast to become a remnant low in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-07-10 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 101435 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 114.2W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 114.2W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 113.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.3N 118.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.6N 121.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.9N 124.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 22.8N 139.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-07-10 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 101435 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 1 22(23) 37(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-10 14:00:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 101200 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Special Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Surface observations and radar data from the KDOX WSR-88D radar indicate that there is now an area of 34-kt winds extending north and northwest of the center of Fay. These winds will be approaching the coast of Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay in the next few hours, and as a result the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward to Fenwick Island, Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay. No changes were made to the previous track or intensity forecasts, however 34-kt wind radii were introduced in the northwest quadrant at the initial time and at the 12-h forecast. No other changes were made to the wind radii analyses or forecasts. Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC) intermediate advisory. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1200Z 37.6N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Fay Graphics
2020-07-10 14:00:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 12:00:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 12:00:20 GMT
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