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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-08 22:53:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Jul 2020 20:53:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Jul 2020 21:24:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-07-08 22:50:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082050 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 Cristina is having some difficulty this afternoon in maintaining deep convection over its center. Briefly, the low-level center became apparent via GOES-16 visible imagery just north of its main convective mass. This exposed center was also confirmed by a 1756Z 37 GHz color image from the GPM satellite. The more-easily-observed center allows for a confident assessment of its northwest motion at 11 kt. Cristina should turn back to the west-northwest at about the same rate of forward speed tomorrow as a broad mid-level ridge builds north of the tropical storm. That motion should continue for the next few days until Cristina turns to the west and accelerates slightly as its remnant low is steered by the near-surface trade winds. The global and hurricane dynamical models are in close agreement on this forecast track, which is slightly north of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position of Cristina. The Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB not changing at 18Z as well as the partially exposed center indicate that the earlier intensification has temporarily ceased. A 50-kt maximum wind remains the current intensity, though the ASCAT-A pass and SATCON satellite consensus suggests that this may be somewhat generous. Conditions are quite conducive for intensification in the short term, as SSTs are above 28C, mid-level humidity is near 75 percent, and deep tropospheric vertical shear is only 5-10 kt. However, the SSTs are already cooling along the track of Cristina and it should pass over the 27C SST isotherm in about 36-48 hours. After 48 hours, the thermodynamic components quickly become hostile for the system. The statistical and mesoscale hurricane models have backed off some more and the peak intensity has been lowered slightly compared to the previous advisory. It does appear that the opportunity for Cristina to rapidly intensify is diminishing. Cristina is expected to become a remnant low in four to five days, once deep convection ceases. The aforementioned ASCAT-A scatterometer pass confirmed the rather small size - 60 nm maximum wind radii in the southeastern quadrant - of Cristina this afternoon. Only a modest increase in size is expected over the next couple of days based on the RVCN consensus technique. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 16.0N 107.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 18.9N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 19.8N 115.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 20.6N 118.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 21.1N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-07-08 22:45:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 082045 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 41(41) 15(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 28(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 54(60) 8(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 7(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 3(40) X(40) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-08 22:44:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA CONTINUING AS A TROPICAL STORM WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 the center of Cristina was located near 16.0, -107.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 9
2020-07-08 22:44:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 082044 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 ...CRISTINA CONTINUING AS A TROPICAL STORM WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 107.7W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 107.7 West. Cristina is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by tomorrow morning, and that motion is should continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, Cristina will remain well offshore the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Cristina is expected to become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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