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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-07-09 22:55:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 092055 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 2100 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 74.9W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 74.9W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 74.9W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 37.1N 74.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 39.0N 74.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.6N 73.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 49.1N 70.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 74.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-09 22:38:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Jul 2020 20:38:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Jul 2020 20:38:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-07-09 22:36:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 437 WTPZ45 KNHC 092036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Satellite images and microwave data indicate that the structure of Cristina has improved since this morning. Banding features have become more prevalent, while deep convection has persisted over the center throughout the day. In addition, the average of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB has increased since this morning's advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt. The storm will remain in a favorable environment for intensification through Friday morning, and it is expected to become a hurricane by that time. By late Friday, the cyclone will cross the 26 C isotherm and move into a progressively more stable and dry atmospheric environment. This should result in steady weakening. There is some spread in the guidance as to how quickly Cristina will lose its convection later on in the forecast period. The GFS suggests this will not occur until 120 h, while the Canadian and ECMWF indicate this will happen in 96 h and 72 h, respectively. Based on a blend of these, Cristina is now expected to become a remnant low by 96 h. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and is close to the consensus aids. Cristina's initial motion is west-northwest at 10 kt. The mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen a little over the next day or so, which should keep Cristina on the same path but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is expected. The guidance shifted slightly northward beyond day 3, so the NHC track forecasted was nudged a little north for that time frame. Otherwise, the latest NHC track forecast is little changed compared to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.9N 111.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.7N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 19.7N 115.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 20.5N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 21.0N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 21.4N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 21.9N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z 22.3N 137.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-07-09 22:36:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 092036 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ISLA CLARION 34 2 35(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA CLARION 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 2 70(72) 11(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 20N 115W 50 X 30(30) 14(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 20N 115W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 32(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-09 22:36:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA ALMOST A HURRICANE... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 the center of Cristina was located near 17.9, -111.1 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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