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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-09 16:42:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 the center of Cristina was located near 17.4, -110.2 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 12
2020-07-09 16:42:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 091442 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 ...CRISTINA TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 110.2W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 110.2 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A gradual turn to the west should occur over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through tonight, and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. A weakening trend should then begin by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-07-09 16:42:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 091441 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.2W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.2W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 109.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.2N 111.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.2N 113.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.7N 119.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.1N 122.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.2N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.4N 131.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-09 10:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Jul 2020 08:32:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Jul 2020 09:24:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-07-09 10:31:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090831 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Although deep convection has been increasing tonight in association with Cristina, the overall cloud pattern and structure of the storm has changed little and it continues to lack banding features. The satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 60 kt, and a recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of around 40 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 55 kt. Cristina has not strengthened as much as anticipated. However, the storm still has about another 36 hours in favorable environmental conditions of wind shear of 10 kt or less, mid-level humidities between 75 and 80 percent, and SSTs of 26 C or warmer. During that period it still seems likely that Cristina will strengthen and it could become a hurricane. After 36 hours, Cristina is expected to move over much cooler waters and into a notably drier and more stable air mass. These conditions should promote a steady weakening trend, and Cristina will likely become a remnant low in 4 or 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and in good agreement with the IVCN consensus model. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge located over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen in place, and that should cause Cristina to move a little faster to the west-northwest during the next few days. After that time, the weaker and likely vertically shallow storm should turn toward the west in the low-level trade wind flow. The model tracks remain tightly packed, and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.8N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 17.6N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 18.6N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 19.6N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 20.9N 121.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 21.1N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 21.2N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 21.4N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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