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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-09 04:33:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY FRIDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 the center of Cristina was located near 16.4, -108.6 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 10
2020-07-09 04:33:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 090233 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 ...CRISTINA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 108.6W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 108.6 West. Cristina is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur by Thursday morning, and that motion is should continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, Cristina will remain well offshore the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Cristina is expected to become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-07-09 04:33:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090233 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 After the earlier convective hiatus, Cristina is now going through a little bit of a bursting phase with new inner-core convection developing just west of the center, with the latter feature showing up quite nicely in 0139 UTC SSMI/S microwave satellite imagery. The intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on satellite classifications of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, and 57 kt and 59 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. Cristina is moving northwestward or 305/11 kt. The strong subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of the tropical cyclone should keep Cristina moving in that general direction tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest at about the same forward speed by Thursday morning. By 96 h and beyond, a rapidly weakening and vertically shallow Cristina should turn westward under the influence of brisk easterly trade wind flow. The latest NHC model guidance remains in strong agreement on this evolving track scenario, and the new track forecast closely follows the tightly packed consensus models, which are a little south of the previous advisory track. Environmental and oceanic conditions are expected to remain conducive for strengthening during the next 36-48 h while Cristina remains over SSTs greater than 26 deg C. By 72 h and beyond, the cyclone will be moving over much cooler water characterized by SSTs near 22C by 96-120h, which is expected to induce steady weakening despite the low vertical wind shear conditions. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the IVCN intensity consensus, with Cristina still expected to become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.4N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 17.3N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 18.3N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 19.2N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 20.0N 116.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 20.6N 119.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 21.0N 122.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 21.2N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 21.6N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-07-09 04:33:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 090233 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 43(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 36(38) 12(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 28(29) 37(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 47(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 1(22) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-07-09 04:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 090232 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.6W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.6W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.2W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.3N 110.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.3N 111.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.0N 116.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.6N 119.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 122.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 127.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.6N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 108.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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