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Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-28 07:54:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 the center of Nora was located near 16.7, -105.0 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 10A
2021-08-28 07:54:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 280554 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 100 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 105.0W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to south of Manzanillo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next 24-36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 105.0 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and pass very near the coast of the states of Jalisco and Nayarit by later tonight. Nora is then forecast to approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane later today. Nora is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area later today. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to the northern portions of the warning area later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. As Nora continues northwest or north-northwest, heavy rainfall will move into the Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a result. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics
2021-08-28 07:54:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 05:54:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 04:58:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics
2021-08-28 05:31:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 03:31:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 03:31:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-28 04:44:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280243 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Nora's cloud pattern has not become much better organized since earlier today. The central convection has diminished, but this is likely a diurnal fluctuation. Upper-level outflow appears to be fairly well-defined, with convective banding features most prominent over the southern portion of the circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 55 kt, so the advisory intensity will be held at that value for now. The storm has been moving a little to the east of the previous track over the past few hours, but the longer-term motion estimate is still northwestward, or 325/9 kt. Nora should move on a northwestward or north-northwestward heading for the next 2-3 days on the southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to turn northward as the ridge to its north weakens. The official forecast track has been nudged just a bit to the east of the previous one during the next 72 hours or so, but not as far east as the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCE. Nora is expected to be in a moist, low-shear environment for the next few days, so the atmospheric conditions should favor intensification into a hurricane. Nonetheless, the majority of the intensity guidance does not show much strengthening beyond 24 hours, probably due to land interaction. The official intensity forecast shows gradual strengthening for the next couple of days or so, and is similar to the previous one. This is close to the LGEM guidance based on the ECMWF global model fields. It should be noted that there is significant uncertainty in the future strength of Nora because of the possible influence of land. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while passing nearby the coasts of the Mexican states of Jalisco and Nayarit, and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2.Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, as well as Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 16.3N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 17.6N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 19.6N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 22.7N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 23.6N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 24.5N 109.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 26.5N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 29.5N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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