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Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-08-27 16:48:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 990 WTNT24 KNHC 271448 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON...LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 82.1W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 82.1W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 81.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.2N 83.7W...OVER WESTERN CUBA MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.9N 87.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.6N 89.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.3N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 33.3N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 35.2N 87.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 82.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics

2021-08-27 16:36:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 14:36:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 14:36:25 GMT

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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 8

2021-08-27 16:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 271435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 As was expected, vertical shear appears to be decreasing, with deep convection expanding over Nora's surface center just within the past few hours. Water vapor imagery also suggests an expansion of upper-level outflow to the north of the storm. Since Dvorak data-T numbers are 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, Nora's intensity is being held at that value for now. Nora has turned toward the northwest (310/10 kt) in response to a weakness in the subtropical ridge that has developed over the U.S. southern Rockies. Little change to this steering pattern is expected during the next several days, and Nora is forecast to move toward the northwest or north-northwest for the entire 5-day forecast period. Compared to the last few days, nearly all the track models now have Nora's center staying just offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, in about 36 hours. The GFS and HMON model fields still show a landfall in that area, but their interpolated trackers--which have been shifted to begin at our estimated initial position--also stay just offshore. After 36 hours, the track guidance has shifted slightly eastward, and the new NHC track forecast now keeps Nora's center over water up into the Gulf of California from days 2 through 5. That will be a small needle to thread, however, and any future shifts in the models could increase the risk of impacts to either the Baja California peninsula or the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico through the middle of next week. SHIPS model diagnostics indicate that the northeasterly deep-layer shear over Nora has decreased to about 15 kt, and this shear is expected to decrease further to below 10 kt in about 12 hours. Along with warm waters of about 29 degrees Celsius and significant upper-level divergence (at least for the next 36 hours), these conditions should foster strengthening, and Nora is still forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday. The part of the forecast after 48 hours remains uncertain depending on how much Nora interacts with land, but based on the new forecast that keeps the cyclone over water in the Gulf of California (where SSTs are even warmer -- around 31 degrees Celsius), Nora could maintain hurricane intensity through at least day 4. The NHC intensity forecast continues to hedge on the side of the ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM models, since most of the other models show Nora's center interacting with land to at least some degree. The new forecast has necessitated an extension of the Tropical Storm Warning northward to San Blas, Mexico, and the issuance of a new Tropical Storm Watch north of there to Mazatlan. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while passing nearby the coasts of the Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit, and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, as well as Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. 3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 15.4N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 16.3N 105.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 17.9N 105.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.7N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 23.1N 108.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 26.1N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 28.4N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)

2021-08-27 16:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NORA TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF JALISCO, NAYARIT, AND SINALOA... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 the center of Nora was located near 15.4, -104.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 8

2021-08-27 16:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 271435 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...NORA TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF JALISCO, NAYARIT, AND SINALOA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 104.3W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to San Blas Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 104.3 West. Nora is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight and pass very near the coasts of the states of Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Nora is a large tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. An automated weather station in Puerto Vicente, Guerrero, Mexico, has reported wind gusts as high as 44 mph (72 km/h) during the past several hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to northern portions of the warning area through Saturday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday. RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. As Nora continues northwest, heavy rainfall will move into Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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