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Summary for Tropical Storm Iota (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-17 18:38:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA POSSIBLE FROM IOTA THROUGH THURSDAY... As of 12:00 PM CST Tue Nov 17 the center of Iota was located near 13.7, -85.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 17A
2020-11-17 18:38:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 171738 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1200 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA POSSIBLE FROM IOTA THROUGH THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 85.7W ABOUT 105 MI...160 KM E OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bluefields Nicaragua to the Guatemala/Honduras border * Bay Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 85.7 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). The storm will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua today, and move across southern Honduras tonight before dissipating near El Salvador early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical depression this evening, and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas along the coast in Nicaragua and Honduras. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm). El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-11-15 03:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150236 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 Theta remains a highly sheared but resilient tropical cyclone with little change in its satellite appearance since the previous advisory. A persistent band of deep convection to the southeast of Theta remains within about 60 n mi of the storm center, despite a hostile environment characterized by dry mid-level air and 40-50 kt of northerly shear. Unfortunately, several scatterometer passes this evening missed the core of the cyclone. Since the satellite presentation is generally unchanged from earlier today, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt, which is consistent with a T2.5 Dvorak classification received from TAFB. Strong northerly shear and continued dry air entrainment will eventually take a toll on Theta, but recent satellite trends and the latest GFS simulated satellite imagery suggest that the cyclone could remain tropical a little longer than previously forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast keeps Theta as a 35-kt tropical storm at 12 h before weakening it into a remnant low by 24 h. This follows the consensus of the latest intensity guidance. Thereafter, continued weakening is expected through its dissipation early next week. Theta is still moving eastward at around 4 kt. The cyclone should begin turning northeastward later today, and then accelerate north-northeastward on Monday as the shallow remnant low is steered by a low-level ridge centered over northwestern Africa. The remains of Theta are forecast to open up into a trough and dissipate by 60 h ahead of an approaching cold front over the northeastern Atlantic. The latest NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one, which generally follows the latest track consensus aids. On the forecast track, the remnant low of Theta is expected to pass near the island of Madeira late Sunday night or early Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 31.7N 18.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 31.9N 18.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 32.6N 17.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 34.2N 17.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 36.7N 15.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-15 03:35:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 02:35:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 02:35:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-11-15 03:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 150235 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
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