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Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-15 03:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA IS STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 3:00 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 the center of Theta was located near 31.7, -18.7 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 21
2020-11-15 03:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150234 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 ...THETA IS STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 18.7W ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 18.7 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual turn to the northeast is expected on Sunday, and Theta is forecast to accelerate northward or north-northeastward on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday night and dissipate early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
2020-11-15 03:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 02:33:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 02:33:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-11-15 03:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150233 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.7W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 210SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.7W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.9N 18.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.6N 17.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.2N 17.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.7N 15.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 18.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-11-15 03:32:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150232 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Iota continues to strengthen. Deep convection has been increasing in coverage and intensity near the center, and microwave images indicate that the inner core is becoming better defined. The Dvorak classifications at 00Z supported an intensity of 55 kt, and since the thunderstorms continue to organize, the initial wind speed is set a little higher to 60 kt. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Iota overnight. Iota has slowed a little and has now turned westward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 270/4 kt. A ridge over Florida and the western Atlantic is expected to remain to the north of Iota. This high pressure system, and another ridge over Mexico and the western Gulf, should steer the storm westward to west-northwestward during the next couple of days and then westward to west-southwestward after that. This motion should take the core of Iota to the coast of Nicaragua Monday night. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear quite favorable for Iota to continue strengthening until it reaches the coast in a little more than 2 days. Since the storm appears to be developing an inner core, rapid strengthening during the next couple of days seems likely. All of the intensity models show a significant amount of strengthening before landfall, and are higher than the previous cycle. Based on the latest guidance and favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is above the previous one and shows Iota becoming a hurricane soon and a major hurricane in 36 hours. After Iota moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast as the cyclone moves over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and southern Honduras. The NHC forecast lies close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to intensify and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras, and hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected there beginning Monday. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible by Sunday evening on San Andres. 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 12.7N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 12.9N 77.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 13.3N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 13.7N 81.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 14.0N 82.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 14.1N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0000Z 14.0N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z 13.6N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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