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Tropical Storm Epsilon Public Advisory Number 2
2020-10-19 16:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191453 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM EPSILON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 55.3W ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 55.3 West. Epsilon is stationary and little overall motion is expected through tonight. A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion should begin on Tuesday, and this motion should continue through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the northeast and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-10-19 16:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 191453 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 26(37) 13(50) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-10-19 16:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 191452 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 55.3W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 60SE 0SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 55.3W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.8N 55.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.4N 55.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 40SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.6N 56.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 40SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.3N 58.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 90SE 60SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.1N 59.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 100SE 80SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.2N 60.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 120SE 90SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 32.3N 62.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 34.5N 63.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 55.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics
2020-10-14 16:47:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Oct 2020 14:47:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Oct 2020 15:24:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-10-14 16:46:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 141446 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Recent satellite imagery suggests Norbert is beginning to feel the effects of deep-layer shear and drier mid-level air associated with a mid- to upper-level low pressure system centered to its west-northwest. While Norbert still shows signs of organization, the deepest convection is now displaced to the north of the estimated center position. The advisory intensity is held at 35 kt this morning based on objective and subjective current intensity Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS, SAB, and TAFB. It is likely that Norbert has peaked in terms of its intensity. Norbert's estimated initial motion is 325/13 kt. The cyclone is moving northwestward between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 h, with a gradual decrease in forward speed as the upper low pulls away from Norbert. There is increasing spread noted in the model track guidance as the steering flow weakens between 24-48 h, but the general trend is for a slightly more northward motion during this time. Only minor adjustments were made to the official NHC track forecast, which remains close to the various consensus aids including TVCE and HCCA. Increasing deep-layer shear, drier mid-level air, and cooler sea-surface temperatures are expected to induce a weakening trend beginning later today, and Norbert will likely become a tropical depression this afternoon. The GFS simulated satellite imagery suggests Norbert will lose its deep convection within the next 24-36 h, and the official NHC forecast shows the system degenerating to a remnant low before dissipation at 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 23.1N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 24.4N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 25.6N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 26.6N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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