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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-10-07 16:47:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 323 WTPZ44 KNHC 071447 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Norbert has recovered somewhat from the dry air intrusion that occurred last night. A new burst of deep convection developed near the center early this morning, but the associated cloud tops are beginning to warm and the convection is becoming displaced over the northeastern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt, and is based off the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. The storm is struggling to stay organized despite being over warm waters and in an environment of relatively low shear. By Thursday, the SHIPS guidance suggests that the shear will increase to around 10-15 kt. This shear, along with occasional dry air intrusions similar to one experienced last night, could gradually weaken the system. On the other hand, the warm waters could counteract the moderately negative environmental factors. The latest NHC forecast still favors the latter scenario, and shows Norbert remaining a 35-kt tropical storm throughout the forecast period. This intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is a compromise between the SHIPS guidance and the model consensus. The initial motion is stationary, although the exact center location has been difficult to pinpoint this morning. The steering flow is forecast to remain very weak over the next couple of days, and most of the models show little movement through tonight followed by a slow westward drift Wednesday through Thursday. By late this week, a mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the north to northeast of the cyclone, which should force Norbert on a west-northwestward track. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 72 h, but was adjusted a little north after that time due to a northward shift in the guidance. However, the new track forecast remains south of the consensus aids late in the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 14.2N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 14.1N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 14.0N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 13.9N 107.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 13.8N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 14.1N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 14.9N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 17.5N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-10-07 16:47:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 243 FOPZ14 KNHC 071447 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 13(16) 7(23) 1(24) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-07 16:47:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 the center of Norbert was located near 14.2, -107.1 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 8
2020-10-07 16:47:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 071447 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 ...NORBERT NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 107.1W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 107.1 West. Norbert is nearly stationary and the storm is expected to move little over the next day or so. A drift to the west to west-northwest is expected by late this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-10-07 16:46:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 071446 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 107.1W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 107.1W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.1N 107.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 10SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.0N 107.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.9N 107.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.8N 107.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.1N 108.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.9N 109.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 17.5N 112.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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