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Tropical Storm Delta Public Advisory Number 23
2020-10-10 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 100835 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Delta Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 ...DELTA CONTINUES MOVING INLAND... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE NEAR ITS PATH... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 91.8W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF MONROE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Cameron to Port Fourchon, Louisiana, including Vermilion Bay. The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast from High Island Texas to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: No coastal watches and warnings are in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 91.8 West. Delta is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion toward the northeast is expected to begin later today and continue through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta should move across northeastern Louisiana this morning and then across northern Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valley later today and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Delta is expected to become a tropical depression later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 63 mph (102 km/h) was recently reported in Alexandria, Louisiana. A sustained wind of 37 mph (59 mph) with a gust to 63 mph (102 km/h) was recently observed in Monroe, Louisiana. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to subside today along the Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. RAINFALL: For northern Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce an additional 2 to 5 inches of rain, with isolated storm totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic through the weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6 inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to flash, urban, small stream, along with isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across eastern Mississippi, Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and western/central Georgia. SURF: Swells from Delta are gradually subsiding along the northern Gulf coast. Please consult products from your local weather office for additional information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Delta Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-10-10 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 100835 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM CAMERON TO PORT FOURCHON...LOUISIANA...INCLUDING VERMILION BAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 91.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 91.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 92.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.2N 90.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.4N 88.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 36.0N 86.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 38.2N 83.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 91.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2020-10-10 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 100835 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSON MS 34 30 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) LAFAYETTE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FORT POLK LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Delta Public Advisory Number 22A
2020-10-10 07:55:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 100555 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 ...DELTA NOW A TROPICAL STORM... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 92.3W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Pearl River, Louisiana including Lake Borgne. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cameron to Port Fourchon, Louisiana including Vermilion Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 92.3 West. Delta is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the morning. A motion toward the northeast is expected this afternoon through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta should move across central and northeastern Louisiana this morning and across northern Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valley later today and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Delta should become a tropical depression later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). A wind gust of 68 mph (110 km/h) was recently reported at LSU Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Wind gusts of 55 mph (89 km/h) were recently reported at Adams County airport in Natchez, Mississippi and in Lacassine, Louisiana, and a gust to 59 mph (95 km/h) was just reported in Monroe, Louisiana. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...4-6 ft Cameron, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...2-4 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the AL/FL border including Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to Cameron, LA including Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area through the morning. RAINFALL: Through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding. For extreme eastern Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. As the remnants of Delta move farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6 inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible early this morning over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and over Alabama, central and eastern Mississippi, southern Tennessee and the western Florida Panhandle on Saturday. SURF: Swells from Delta are still affecting portions of the northern and western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics
2020-10-07 16:48:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2020 14:48:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2020 15:32:18 GMT
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