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Tropical Storm Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-10-04 10:52:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 040852 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) MERIDA MX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 1(13) COZUMEL MX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 8
2020-10-04 10:52:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040852 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...GAMMA LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 88.2W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of Cancun. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 88.2 West. Gamma is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion with a further decrease in forward speed is forecast today. Gamma should turn toward the west or west-southwest tonight or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico today, and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening is expected today, followed by weakening tonight or Monday, which should continue into Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), mainly north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of northern Yucatan and far western Cuba through early Tuesday. This rainfall may prolong or enhance any ongoing flash flooding. Through the middle of the week, a separate area of significant rain is possible in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Another area of heavy rain will impact southern Guatemala towards the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua, with accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical Storm Warning area on northern coast of the Yucatan through today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-10-04 10:52:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040852 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CANCUN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 88.2W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 88.2W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 88.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.6N 88.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.7N 88.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.4N 89.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.5N 90.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.0N 91.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 20.4N 92.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.4N 93.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 88.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Gamma Graphics
2020-10-04 07:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 05:54:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 03:25:24 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gamma (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-04 07:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GAMMA MOVES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 the center of Gamma was located near 21.8, -88.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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