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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-10-05 10:30:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 050830 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 131.1W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 131.1W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 130.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.4N 135.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.9N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 131.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Gamma Graphics
2020-10-05 07:48:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 05:48:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 03:25:26 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gamma (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-05 07:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GAMMA A LITTLE WEAKER WHILE IT CONTINUES TO MEANDER JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 1:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 the center of Gamma was located near 22.8, -87.4 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 11A
2020-10-05 07:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 050546 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 100 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GAMMA A LITTLE WEAKER WHILE IT CONTINUES TO MEANDER JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 87.4W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Campeche Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 87.4 West. The tropical storm is drifting toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). Gamma is forecast to gradually turn toward the southwest or west-southwest later today, and continue to move slowly in that direction through mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will continue to meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula this morning, and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late today and on Tuesday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Afterward, little change in strength is forecast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on measurements from the hurricane hunter plane is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche and Tabasco. This rainfall may enhance any ongoing flash flooding and result in new areas of flash flooding into the middle of the week. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late today and on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-10-05 04:39:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050239 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Gamma has moved much farther northeast than previously anticipated. With little in the way of low or mid-level large-scale steering flow currently in place, it seems likely that upper-level southwesterlies, also responsible for the shear affecting the tropical storm, are causing this recent northeastward motion. This may be either through reformations of the center closer to the convection or a direct contribution to the net steering. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating Gamma and so far has found max SFMR winds of 47 kt but flight level winds of only 45 kt. Given the data so far, there is no indication that Gamma is any stronger than the 50 kt intensity, but it seems prudent to let the plane finish its pattern before lowering the winds at this time. Gamma's future track is highly uncertain. The track guidance spread is much higher than usual, and confidence in the forecast is accordingly low. Most of the global models indicate that Gamma will soon begin moving generally west-southwestward as a mid-level ridge briefly builds over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, there is little agreement on exactly when this will happen or how fast Gamma will move once it turns. After about 48 h, Gamma could interact with Tropical Depression Twenty-Six, which is forecast to move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea at that time. Current dynamical models are notoriously bad at forecasting such interactions, but if the two systems do interact it will likely cause Gamma to move inland over the Yucatan. Whether such an interaction occurs or not, continued shear and proximity to land should cause the tropical storm to gradually weaken, and Gamma could dissipate if it moves over land (and stays there) in a few days, as shown by the GFS. The ECMWF shows the vortex remaining over water but dissipating nonetheless, while a couple other global models maintain the vortex longer and show it moving north over the central Gulf of Mexico late in the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a compromise between those solutions, showing a remnant low moving north over the southern Gulf of Mexico by day 5. In general, the NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but slightly lower to account for the system potentially moving inland. Due to the uncertainty in the forecast at this time, future advisories may feature larger than normal changes to the track or intensity forecast. It is also worth noting that several dynamical model trackers appear to lose Gamma and jump to tracking Tropical Depression Twenty-Six when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in unrealistic depictions of the intensity and track forecasts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. 2. Even though Gamma is just offshore, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 22.8N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 22.7N 87.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 22.3N 88.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 21.8N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 21.3N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 20.3N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 20.2N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0000Z 22.0N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 10/0000Z 24.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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