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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-10-05 10:50:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050850 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Gamma is a strongly sheared tropical storm that has been meandering just north of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Strong convective cloud tops colder than -80 deg C are located more than 60 nmi north and northeast of the well-defined and fully exposed low-level circulation center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of only 44 kt along with peak SFMR surface winds of 47 kt. In addition, a 0329Z ASCAT-A pass revealed peak surface winds of 41 kt. Allowing for undersampling by the scatterometer instrument and blending it with the SFMR winds supports lowering the initial intensity to 45 kt. The central pressure of 999 mb is based on a center dropsonde reports of 1000 mb and 10-12 kt winds. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 240/02 kt. Gamma's future track remains highly uncertain after day 2. For the next 48 hours or so, the cyclone is forecast to move slowly southwestward to west-southwestward and weaken due to strong southerly vertical wind shear. Thereafter, TD-26 to the east is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane, accompanied by a corresponding increase in the size of that cyclone's circulation, which is expected to result in some binary interaction between the two tropical cyclones. Due to Gamma's expected smaller size on days 3 and 4, the cyclone is forecast to be pulled eastward and then northward, making landfall on and then moving over the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula. By day 5, Gamma is expected to degenerate into a remnant low and then be absorbed by the larger circulation of the expected central Gulf of Mexico hurricane that is currently TD-26. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but a little slower than the previous advisory track, and lies close to the southern edge of the guidance envelope. Strong southerly wind shear, combined with drier and more stable air just to the west of Gamma, is expected to weaken the cyclone further over the next few days. If land interaction occurs sooner than expected, then the cyclone could weaken and dissipate sooner than currently forecast. For now, the intensity forecast maintains continuity with the previous advisory and shows dissipation by 120 hours as Gamma interacts with what is expected to be a significant hurricane over the central Gulf of Mexico by 96 hours, which could end up absorbing the smaller Gamma tropical cyclone. Due to the uncertainty in the forecast at this time, future advisories may feature larger-than-normal changes to the track or intensity forecast. It is also worth noting that several dynamical model trackers appear to lose Gamma and jump to tracking Tropical Depression Twenty-Six when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in unrealistic depictions of the model intensity and track forecasts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall through midweek over portions of southeast Mexico, including the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall could result in significant flash flooding. 2. Even though Gamma is just offshore, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 22.7N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 22.5N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 22.1N 88.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 21.4N 89.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 20.8N 90.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 20.3N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND YUCATAN 72H 08/0600Z 20.7N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND YUCATAN 96H 09/0600Z 22.5N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Marie Graphics
2020-10-05 10:42:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 08:42:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 08:42:27 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-05 10:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY WEDNESDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Oct 5 the center of Marie was located near 20.8, -131.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-10-05 10:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050832 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Satellite images show the exposed low-level circulation well to the southwest of any remaining deep convection. ASCAT data, however, came in at 50-55 kt just before 06Z, which is higher than the satellite presentation alone would suggest. The initial wind speed is set to 55 kt on the basis of that data. Marie should weaken during the next few days due to cold waters and strong shear. Models are in very good agreement on a steady weakening, and little change was made to the previous forecast. Remnant low status is expected by 48 hours, and could even happen sooner based on current trends. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt this morning. A ridge to the north should steer Marie to the northwest or west-northwest for the next couple of days, then the tropical cyclone is likely to turn westward as it becomes a more shallow feature. Model guidance has generally been adjusting to this scenario, with a mid-latitude trough no longer expected to exert much influence. The new forecast is shifted southward from 48 hours and beyond, near but a little slower than the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 20.8N 131.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 22.4N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 22.9N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0600Z 23.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2020-10-05 10:30:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 050830 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 135W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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