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Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-14 04:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 02:32:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 02:32:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-14 04:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140231 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Karina's satellite presentation is not terribly impressive, with the deep convection sheared well south of what appears to be a somewhat elongated low-level center by 15 to 20 kt of northerly shear. The subjective Dvorak Final-T numbers have decreased a little in the last 6 hours, but overall a blend of the objective and subjective satellite estimates yields an intensity of 40 kt for this advisory. Karina only has a limited window for strengthening, with SSTs forecast to cool to 26C along the forecast track within 36 hours. With the shear forecast to persist during until the waters cool and the atmosphere dries out, the intensity guidance has trended downward again this cycle, and so has the NHC prediction, which is close to or a little above HCCA and higher than the simple consensus aids. Karina should become a remnant low in about 4 days and is expected to dissipate by day 5. The initial motion estimate is 285/11. Karina should be steered generally west-northwestward for the next several days, followed by a turn toward the west in the low-level flow by 96 hours. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 18.2N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 18.7N 118.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 19.4N 119.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 20.2N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 21.0N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 21.8N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 22.3N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 22.5N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-14 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 the center of Karina was located near 18.2, -117.1 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 5
2020-09-14 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 140231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...KARINA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 117.1W ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 117.1 West. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast in the next 24 hours, with gradual weakening expected to begin on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-14 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 117.1W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 100SE 130SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 117.1W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 116.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.7N 118.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 110SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.4N 119.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.2N 121.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.0N 122.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.8N 123.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.3N 124.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.5N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 117.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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