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Tropical Storm Laura Update Statement
2020-08-27 18:53:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT63 KNHC 271653 TCUAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA... ...HIGH WATER LEVELS PERSIST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST... Barksdale AFB, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h). This will be the last hourly position update issued on Laura. The intermediate advisory will be issued at 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC). SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 92.9W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES $$ Forecaster Roberts/Brown
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Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-27 16:52:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 14:52:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 15:38:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-08-27 16:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 271450 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Iselle consists of a rather ragged looking area of deep convection being sheared to the southwest of a partially exposed low-level center. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS support keeping the initial intensity at 40 kt. Moderate-to-strong easterly to northeasterly vertical wind shear will likely prevent Iselle from strengthening over the next couple of days. After that time, the shear is forecast to relax somewhat. However, the cyclone will then be moving over SSTs of only 26 C and into a more stable atmospheric environment. This should cause the deep convection to gradually dissipate, and the cyclone is expected to weaken this weekend before degenerating into a remnant low early next week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN consensus and SHIPS guidance. Iselle is moving northeastward at 4 kt, embedded in a large monsoon gyre. The steering flow is forecast to become more southerly this weekend inside the gyre, resulting in a more northward motion. As the cyclone breaks north of the gyre, a turn to the northwest then west is anticipated while the system becomes steered by a low- to mid- level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies in between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the TVCX track consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 17.0N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 17.5N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 18.2N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 18.9N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 19.9N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 22.2N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 22.5N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 22.3N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-08-27 16:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 271450 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 7 28(35) 19(54) 4(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) ISLA CLARION 50 X 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 1 5( 6) 11(17) 14(31) 5(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Hernan Graphics
2020-08-27 16:50:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 14:50:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 15:31:28 GMT
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