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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-08-27 22:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 272031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.8W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.8W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.8N 115.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.6N 114.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.6N 114.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.8N 114.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.9N 114.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.8N 115.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 23.2N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 23.1N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Laura Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-08-27 19:58:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 17:58:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 31A
2020-08-27 19:56:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 271756 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 100 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...FLOODING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING INLAND OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS... ...HIGH WATER LEVELS PERSIST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 92.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ENE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the Gulf coast has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sabine Pass Texas to Port Fourchon Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located inland over northern Louisiana near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 92.8 West. Laura is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion should continue through this afternoon. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura is forecast to move over Arkansas tonight, the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, and the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Laura is expected to weaken to a tropical depression this evening or overnight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h) was recently reported at Monroe Regional Airport in Louisiana. A wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) was recently reported at South Arkansas Regional Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf Coast and will continue to subside over the next few hours. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread into northern Louisiana and portions of Arkansas through this evening. RAINFALL: Through Friday Laura is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas, with isolated storm totals of 18 inches over Louisiana. This rainfall will continue to cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across the mid-Mississippi Valley, portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys, the central Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic States. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. The risk for tornadoes will shift into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions on Friday into Friday night. SURF: Swells produced by Laura continue to affect the U.S. Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas and northeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics
2020-08-27 19:56:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 17:56:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 15:24:35 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-27 18:53:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA... ...HIGH WATER LEVELS PERSIST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST... As of 12:00 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 the center of Laura was located near 32.6, -92.9 with movement N at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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