je.st
news
Tag: tropical storm
Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-27 05:00:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 03:00:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 03:00:41 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-27 04:58:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270258 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that a convective burst has formed a little closer to the center of Iselle during the past few hours, although the circulation remains at least somewhat elongated. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are near 35 kt, so that remains the initial intensity. The imagery, as well as model analyses, show that Iselle continues to be undergoing strong easterly shear. Iselle is embedded in a large monsoon gyre, and the southwesterly flow on the south side of the gyre should be the main steering influence for the next 60 h or so. This should result in the cyclone continuing its current slow motion toward the northeast. After that time, the cyclone should separate from the gyre, allowing a mid-level ridge to the north and northeast of the system to become the dominant steering mechanism. This should cause Iselle to turn to the north, then northwest, then eventually to the west. The track guidance is in good agreement with the general scenario, although there is some spread on when and where there turns will occur. The new forecast track is close to the HCCA corrected consensus mode and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Present indications are that the current strong shear will persist for several days, and after 72 h the forecast track takes the cyclone over cooler sea surface temperatures. Based on this, significant strengthening appears unlikely, although short-lived spin ups due to convective bursts are possible. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast in showing little change of strength for 72 h, followed by weakening to a depression and a remnant low. An alternative scenario is that the shear causes Iselle to weaken to a trough at any time during the next 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 16.2N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 16.7N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 17.3N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 17.9N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 20.7N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 22.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)
2020-08-27 04:58:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 the center of Iselle was located near 16.2, -116.2 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 3
2020-08-27 04:58:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270257 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...ISELLE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 116.2W ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 116.2 West. Iselle is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-27 04:58:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270257 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 116.2W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 116.2W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.7N 115.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.3N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.9N 114.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.7N 113.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 22.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 116.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [834] [835] [836] [837] [838] [839] [840] [841] [842] [843] [844] [845] [846] [847] [848] [849] [850] [851] [852] [853] next »