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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 4
2020-08-27 10:50:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270849 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...ISELLE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 116.1W ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 116.1 West. Iselle is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, mainly to the south and southwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-27 10:50:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270849 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 A sheared band of deep convection has persisted near and to the southwest and west of Iselle's center. Night-visible satellite imagery indicates that the circulation has tightened up somewhat, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON intensity estimate is 41 kt. Based on these satellite data, the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt. Unfortunately, all three scatterometer passes missed Iselle's inner-core wind field. The initial motion estimate is 030/04 kt. Similar to Tropical Storm Hernan farther to the east, Iselle is forecast to remain embedded within a large monsoon gyre, which will gradually contract down as Hernan moves toward southern Baja California and weakens over the next few days. This will result in the current southwesterly flow on the south side of Iselle to become more southerly, which will gradually turn the cyclone northward and then northwestward. By 72 hours, Iselle is expected to interact with and possibly absorb the remnants of Hernan when the two systems are west-southwest of Baja California. Thereafter, Iselle is forecast to move westward to west-southwestward and slowly weaken. The new NHC forecast track is close to a blend of the HCCA corrected-consensus model and the simple consensus models GFEX and TVCE, and is similar to the previous advisory track. Although short-lived convective bursts near the center will likely continue for the next few days, no significant strengthening is forecast for the next 48 hours due to moderate-to-strong easterly vertical wind shear that will persist across the system. At 60 hours and beyond, strong shear is expected to gradually weaken Iselle, with degeneration into a post-tropical remnant low forecast to occur by day 4, with the cyclone possibly even dissipating by 120 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 16.6N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 17.2N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 18.4N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 19.3N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 20.5N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 21.7N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 22.4N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 22.4N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-08-27 10:50:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 270849 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 3 19(22) 23(45) 7(52) 1(53) X(53) 1(54) ISLA CLARION 50 X 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 13(22) 7(29) 1(30) 1(31) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-27 10:49:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270849 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 116.1W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 116.1W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N 115.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.4N 114.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.3N 114.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.5N 113.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.7N 114.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 22.4N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 22.4N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 116.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Hernan Graphics
2020-08-27 10:44:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 08:44:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 08:44:17 GMT
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