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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-08-27 10:43:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270842 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Although Hernan is a sheared tropical cyclone, another strong burst of deep convection with cloud tops of -83C to -86C has developed near and south through west of the center. An 0401Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass revealed several 38-40 kt surface wind vectors of south through southwest of the center, so the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt, which is supported by a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 40 kt. The initial motion is estimate is 355/04 kt. Hernan is expected to remain caught within a large-scale, eastern North Pacific cyclonic gyre during the next few days, which will result in Hernan moving counter-clockwise around the eastern and northern periphery of the gyre. The cyclone will continue to move slowly northward this morning, followed by a turn toward the northwest by Thursday afternoon, with a west-northwestward motion expected on Friday. By Saturday, Hernan is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system, and possibly even dissipate and merge with Tropical Storm Iselle when the two systems are west-southwest of Baja California. The new NHC track is a very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the simple track consensus models TVCE and GFEX, and the NOAA-HCCA corrected-consensus model. Hernan will remain in a moderate-to-strong easterly vertical wind shear regime for the next three days, which is expected to prevent any significant strengthening from occurring despite the cyclone being over warm waters and within a moist mid-level environment. By 60 hours, Hernan is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low, and possibly merge with Tropical Storm Iselle in 72-96 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 18.6N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 19.5N 106.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 20.7N 107.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 21.9N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 22.7N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 22.7N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z 22.4N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Hernan Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-08-27 10:43:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 270842 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-08-27 10:42:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 270842 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.0W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.0W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 106.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.7N 107.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.9N 108.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.7N 110.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.7N 112.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.4N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hernan (EP3/EP132020)
2020-08-27 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 the center of Hernan was located near 18.6, -106.0 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hernan Public Advisory Number 5
2020-08-27 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 762 WTPZ33 KNHC 270842 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...HERNAN STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 106.0W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 106.0 West. Hernan is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by this afternoon, followed by a west-northwestward motion on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Hernan, along with the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. A weakening trend is expected to begin by early Friday, and Hernan is forecast to become a remnant low Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, mainly to the south and southwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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