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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-08-24 10:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240857 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Satellite data indicate that Laura has moved back over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea south of Cuba. Modest northerly vertical wind shear has kept the bulk of the deep convection displaced into the southern semicircle of Laura's circulation. Earlier ASCAT-B/-C scatterometer passes around 0210Z-0250Z revealed a small circulation just offshore southeastern Cuba. However, this feature is considered to be a leeside vortex, possibly having developed in response to the long-fetch southerly low-level flow passing over Jamaica, and not the primary low-level center associated with Laura. The initial intensity is being maintained at 55 kt based on 43-46 kt wind vectors located just offshore southeastern Cuba that were present in the aforementioned ASCAT data, and allowing for some undersampling by the scatterometer instrument. The initial motion estimate is 290/18 kt. The deep-layer Bermuda-Azores ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast by all of the models to build and expand westward across the Bahamas, Florida, and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the new few days. This dominant steering flow pattern is expected to keep Laura moving west-northwestward just offshore the southern coast of Cuba today, followed by the cyclone emerging over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. By late Tuesday and early Wednesday, a mid- to upper-level trough located over the south-central U.S. is forecast to pinch off and dig southwestward and merge with the remnants of Tropical Storm Marco over the western Gulf of Mexico, eroding the western extent of the ridge in the process. This is expected to cause Laura to slow down and gradually turn northwestward and then northward toward the northwestern Gulf coast by late Wednesday and early Thursday. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on this developing synoptic pattern, and the official forecast is similar to but slightly left or south of the previous advisory track to account for the expected northerly to northeasterly wind shear keeping the convection and low-level center displaced to the south for the next 24 hours or so. On the forecast track, Laura is expected to remain just offshore the southern Cuba today, move into the Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning, and approach the U..S northwest Gulf coast area Wednesday night and early Thursday. Since Laura's center is expected to remain over water just south of Cuba, there is the possibility that some slight strengthening could occur today or tonight before the cyclone reaches the Gulf of Mexico in 24 hours. After that, Laura will be moving over the very warm and deep waters of Gulf Stream and Loop Current located over the southeastern Gulf, which could trigger a brief period of rapid intensification. The GFS and ECMWF models, along with the statistical and corrected-consensus models, only strengthen the cyclone to a peak intensity around 75 kt. In contrast, the HRWF and HMON models bring Laura to major hurricane strength by 60 hours. Given the very favorable environmental conditions of high SSTs near 31 deg C and low vertical shear values less than 10 kt after 24-36 hours, subsequent intensity forecasts might have to trend more toward the regional models. But for now, the official intensity forecast will continue to follow a blend of the regional and global model intensity forecasts, and lies at the high-end of the intensity guidance at 60 and 72 hours. Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph (13 kt). In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across much of Cuba today. Heavy rainfall is likely across Cuba and Jamaica today, and these rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas, and the Middle and Lower Florida Keys later today. 2. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco. Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 20.8N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 21.7N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 22.9N 84.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 24.5N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 26.1N 90.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 28.0N 92.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 29.8N 93.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 35.4N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 29/0600Z 37.6N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Marco Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-08-24 10:57:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 08:57:22 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marco (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-24 10:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR MARCO BUT DANGEROUS STORM SURGE STILL ANTICIPATED... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Marco was located near 27.6, -88.2 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 16
2020-08-24 10:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 986 WTNT34 KNHC 240856 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...HURRICANE WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR MARCO BUT DANGEROUS STORM SURGE STILL ANTICIPATED... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 88.2W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watch for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watches west of Intracoastal City Louisiana and from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border have been discontinued. All Storm Surge Watches have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for.... * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 88.2 West. Marco is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). Marco is forecast to approach the coast of Louisiana this afternoon, and then turn westward and move very close to the coast of Louisiana through Tuesday night. Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Marco is forecast to become a tropical depression late on Tuesday and dissipate on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City LA to Ocean Springs MS, including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start by this afternoon in portions of the warning area. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of the northeast and north-central Gulf coast through Tuesday. This rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and small stream flooding along the area. SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from southeast Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-08-24 10:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 035 FONT14 KNHC 240856 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0900 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 1 9(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BURAS LA 34 13 37(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) BURAS LA 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 46 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) GFMX 280N 890W 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 26(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 8( 8) 7(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 23(23) 10(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEESLER AB 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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