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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 19
2020-08-24 22:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 242046 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...MARCO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 88.9W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lingering coastal flooding are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast through this evening. For information on these hazards see products from your local National Weather Service office. Tropical cyclone wind and surge watches have been issued for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast for Tropical Storm Laura. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 88.9 West. Marco is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), a turn to the west-northwest and a slight increase in forward speed is expected to occur tonight. On the forecast track, Marco will move inland over southeastern Louisiana tonight, and across southern Louisiana on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Marco is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight and degenerate to a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service weather station located on Petit Bois Island, Mississippi recently reported a wind gust to 38 mph (61 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible over the coastal sections of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this evening. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with additional isolated totals of 7 inches across portions of the north-central Gulf coast and southeastern United States through Wednesday. Rain totals related to Marco near Apalachicola, Florida reached as high as 11.81 inches on Sunday per a CoCoRaHS report. The additional rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and small stream flooding along the same area. SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon through tonight across the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, far southern Alabama, and far southern Mississippi. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-08-24 22:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 242046 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 13 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) STENNIS MS 34 16 5(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BURAS LA 34 12 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 10 10(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BATON ROUGE LA 34 2 13(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMERON LA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEESLER AB 34 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-08-24 22:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 242045 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NAPLES FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 5(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 17(25) X(25) X(25) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 22(32) 1(33) X(33) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 17(35) 1(36) X(36) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 4( 4) 34(38) 18(56) 3(59) X(59) X(59) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 1(31) X(31) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 31(46) 1(47) X(47) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 28(29) 53(82) 7(89) X(89) X(89) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 46(51) 9(60) X(60) X(60) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 46(59) 1(60) X(60) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 1(25) X(25) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 37(65) X(65) X(65) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) X(29) X(29) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 61(67) 2(69) X(69) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 1(37) X(37) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 57(74) X(74) X(74) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 1(43) X(43) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 51(73) 1(74) X(74) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 1(43) X(43) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 10(10) 51(61) 21(82) X(82) X(82) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 23(59) 1(60) X(60) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 17(34) 1(35) X(35) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 3(48) X(48) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) SHREVEPORT LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 61(68) 2(70) X(70) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 1(44) X(44) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 61(75) 1(76) X(76) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 49(51) 1(52) X(52) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 48(82) 1(83) X(83) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 47(55) 1(56) X(56) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) X(34) X(34) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 55(60) 2(62) X(62) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) X(37) X(37) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 50(57) 2(59) X(59) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 1(35) X(35) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 53(64) 2(66) X(66) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 1(43) X(43) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 31(50) 1(51) X(51) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) X(23) X(23) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 2(36) X(36) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 1(29) X(29) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 17(36) X(36) X(36) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 44(55) 1(56) X(56) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 1(31) X(31) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 14 30(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) HAVANA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 50 51 X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) CIENFUEGOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 11(29) X(29) X(29) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-08-24 22:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 242045 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 The satellite presentation of the tropical storm has improved somewhat with deep convection remaining over the center, and an increase in banding over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Earlier aircraft and scatterometer data, however, indicated that there has been little change in strength today, and the initial intensity remains 50 kt. These observations have shown the the stronger winds are located in the convective band well east and southeast of the center, and that the system currently lacks an inner core. This is likely the reason that Laura has not been able to strengthen while it has moved over water today. The aircraft also reported a fairly stable minimum pressure of 1001-1003 mb during its mission this morning and early afternoon. The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as the previous advisory. Once Laura moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, a combination of warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear should allow for steady strengthening. The latest iterations of the global and regional hurricane models continue to show significant deepening while Laura traverses the Gulf of Mexico, and a period or rapid strengthening is possible once an inner core is able to organize. The statistical guidance is again on the lower side of the intensity forecast envelope while the HWRF and CTCI models bringing Laura to major hurricane strength. The NHC intensity forecast is again between these solutions and is close to the consensus aids. The initial motion estimate is 290/16 kt. A deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic is expected to build westward during the next day or so. By early Wednesday, a mid- to upper-level trough over the south-central United States is forecast to erode the western portion of the ridge, which should cause Laura to turn northwestward and then northward toward the northwestern Gulf coast. After landfall, Laura or its remnants are expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and recurve over the eastern U.S. on days 4 and 5. The latest runs of the dynamical models are in a little better agreement, but the 1200 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean is located considerably left of its deterministic run, indicating that uncertainty regarding the track forecast remains. Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 60 h is around 90 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15 mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. The new NHC forecast necessitates the issuance of storm surge and hurricane watches for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Key Messages: 1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focus on the details of the official forecast given the typical uncertainty in NHC's 2 to 3 day track and intensity predictions. In addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast. 2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48 hours, and a storm surge watch has been issued for these areas outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from Port Bolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane watch has been issued. Additional hurricane watches may be needed farther south along the Texas coast if the track forecast shifts toward the south and west tonight and Tuesday. 4. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall are expected across central and western Cuba through tonight. These rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 21.7N 82.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 22.7N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 24.2N 87.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 25.7N 90.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 27.5N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 29.8N 93.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 28/1800Z 36.1N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 29/1800Z 36.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-24 22:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF LAURA PASSING NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Laura was located near 21.7, -82.2 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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