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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 20
2020-08-24 22:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 242044 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...CENTER OF LAURA PASSING NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 82.2W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne for areas outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Port Bolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from south of Port Bolivar to San Luis Pass Texas and from Morgan City to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. The Tropical Storm Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Bolivar Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Bolivar to San Luis Pass Texas * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 82.2 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will cross western Cuba this evening and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is foreast to become a hurricane by late Tuesday. Additional strengthening is forecast on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily to the northeast and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, and Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...4-6 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...2-4 ft Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations into tonight: Western Jamaica, Western Cuba and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides. From Wednesday afternoon into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward within the warning area in western Cuba through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible through tonight across the Florida Keys. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-08-24 22:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 619 WTNT23 KNHC 242044 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS AND LAKE BORGNE FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HURRICANE AND STORM DAMAGE RISK REDUCTION SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT BOLIVAR TEXAS TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT BOLIVAR TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS AND FROM MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT BOLIVAR TEXAS TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST * DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT BOLIVAR TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 82.2W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 82.2W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 81.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.7N 84.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.2N 87.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.7N 90.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.5N 92.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.8N 93.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 36.1N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 36.5N 80.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 82.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Marco Graphics
2020-08-24 20:01:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 18:01:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 17:57:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-08-24 19:56:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 241756 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Special Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Marco continues to weaken as the deep convection has been stripped away from the center since this morning. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the system has reported peak 925 mb flight level winds of 38 kt. Although there have been a few recent higher SFMR measurements that are due to rain contamination, a recent ASCAT overpass revealed only a small area of 30-35 kt winds. Based on these data the initial intensity is being lowered to 35 kt and a special advisory has been issued to update the short-term intensity forecast and discontinue warnings for the Gulf coast. The showers and thunderstorms generating the tropical storm force winds to the northeast of Marco's center are forecast by most models to gradually dissipate through this evening. Based on how quickly the vortex has been spinning down and the anticipated decrease of convection, it is reasonable to assume that sustained tropical storm force winds will no longer reach the northern Gulf coast. Therefore, all wind and surge warnings for the Gulf coast associated with Marco have been discontinued. Shortly after the cyclone reaches the Gulf Coast later tonight it should degenerate to a remnant low, with this low dissipating inland within a couple of days. The latest intensity forecast was adjusted downward through 12 h, but remains the same as the previous NHC forecast thereafter. Marco has been moving slowly all day, and an initial motion estimate is now 320/5 kt. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. As the cyclone continues to weaken and degenerates to a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest is expected as the system becomes steered in the low level flow. The latest forecast track was adjusted slightly northward through 12 h, but remains the same as the previous one until the system dissipates. This special advisory package replaces the 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC) intermediate public advisory. Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lingering coastal flooding are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast through this evening. For information on these hazards see products from your local National Weather Service office. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week, and tropical cyclone wind and surge watches and warnings could be issued for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1800Z 28.7N 88.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 29.4N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 30.5N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 30.9N 95.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marco (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-24 19:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARCO WEAKENS... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT... As of 1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Marco was located near 28.7, -88.6 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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