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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 18
2020-08-24 19:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241756 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Special Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...MARCO WEAKENS... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 88.6W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning for the U.S. Gulf Coast have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lingering coastal flooding are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast through this evening. For information on these hazards see products from your local National Weather Service office. Tropical cyclone wind and surge watches or warnings are likely to be issued for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast later today for Tropical Storm Laura. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 88.6 West. Marco is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected to occur by Tuesday, and this motion should continue until the system dissipates in a couple of days. Aircraft and satellite derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Marco is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight and degenerate to a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the northeast of the center over water. A National Ocean Service weather station located on Petit Bois Island, Mississippi recently reported a wind gust to 35 mph (58 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by aircraft reconnaissance is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible over the coastal sections of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this evening. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches across portions of the northeast and north-central Gulf coast through Tuesday. This rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and small stream flooding along the same area. SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today into tonight across the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-08-24 19:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 241756 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1800 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 8 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) STENNIS MS 34 6 17(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BURAS LA 34 8 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 22(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 17(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEESLER AB 34 10 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-08-24 19:54:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 044 WTNT24 KNHC 241754 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1800 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND STORM SURGE WARNING FOR THE U.S. GULF COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LINGERING COASTAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED FROM MARCO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST LATER TODAY FOR TROPICAL STORM LAURA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 88.6W AT 24/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 88.6W AT 24/1800Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 88.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.4N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N 93.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.9N 95.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 88.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Tropical Storm Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-24 19:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF LAURA PASSING NEAR CAYO LARGO CUBA.... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Laura was located near 21.4, -81.6 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 19A
2020-08-24 19:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 241744 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...CENTER OF LAURA PASSING NEAR CAYO LARGO CUBA.... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 81.6W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM S OF CAYO LARGO ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West * Dry Tortugas The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for portions of the U.S. northwest Gulf coast area by this evening. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 81.6 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move over the Caribbean Sea just offshore of the southern coast of Cuba this afternoon, cross western Cuba this evening, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but strengthening is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico. Laura is foreast to become a hurricane on Tuesday, with additional strengthening forecast on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily to the northeast and east of the center. An elevated observing site at Sand Key located south of Key West, Florida, has recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph (67 km/h). A wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h) has been observed at Santa Clara, Cuba, within the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations through today: Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides. From Wednesday afternoon into Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas this afternoon and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle on Tuesday and Tuesday night. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible later today into tonight across the Florida Keys. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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