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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2016-10-07 22:46:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 072046 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 2100 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DANVILLE VA 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) NORFOLK VA 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 5( 5) 12(17) 6(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) GREENSBORO NC 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) RALEIGH NC 34 2 8(10) 5(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ROCKY MT NC 34 2 8(10) 10(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 7( 7) 33(40) 14(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 4 30(34) 10(44) 2(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 4 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 3 21(24) 36(60) 6(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) CHERRY PT NC 50 X 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 2 20(22) 40(62) 8(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 1( 1) 20(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 23(26) 38(64) 7(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 2( 2) 19(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 4 44(48) 26(74) 3(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) SURF CITY NC 50 X 7( 7) 25(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SURF CITY NC 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 6 52(58) 19(77) 2(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 11(11) 23(34) 1(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) WILMINGTON NC 64 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BALD HEAD ISL 34 13 59(72) 15(87) 1(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 25(25) 28(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X 7( 7) 17(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) FLORENCE SC 34 24 46(70) 3(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) FLORENCE SC 50 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 29 22(51) 2(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) COLUMBIA SC 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 23 57(80) 8(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) LITTLE RIVER 50 1 33(34) 15(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) LITTLE RIVER 64 X 11(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MYRTLE BEACH 34 40 48(88) 4(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) MYRTLE BEACH 50 1 44(45) 10(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 16(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) GEORGETOWN SC 34 66 29(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GEORGETOWN SC 50 3 59(62) 4(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X 32(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CHARLESTON SC 34 88 11(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 50 25 54(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) CHARLESTON SC 64 3 47(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 62 22(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 24 28(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) ATLANTA GA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 33 9(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) AUGUSTA GA 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAVANNAH GA 50 73 6(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) SAVANNAH GA 64 35 7(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGS BAY GA 50 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) KINGS BAY GA 64 29 X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) WAYCROSS GA 34 66 1(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) WAYCROSS GA 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYPORT NS FL 50 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) MAYPORT NS FL 64 50 X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSONVILLE 50 56 X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) JACKSONVILLE 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 22 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MIAMI FL 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) VENICE FL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 39
2016-10-07 22:46:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 072045 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016 ...HURRICANE MATTHEW CAUSES DEVASTATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 80.7W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All coastal warnings have been discontinued south of the Volusia/Brevard county line. The Hurricane Warning from the Volusia/Brevard county line to the Flagler/Volusia county line has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Flagler/Volusia county line to Surf City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Volusia/Brevard county line to the Flagler/Volusia county line * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 80.7 West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward toward the north-northeast and then to the northeast is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of northeast Florida and Georgia through tonight, and near or over the coast of South Carolina on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane until it begins to move away from the southeastern United States on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A private weather station in Jacksonville recently reported a wind gust of 82 mph (131 km/h). The minimum central pressure recently reported by NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes was 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area in Florida tonight, and spread northward within the warning area through Saturday. Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by Saturday night or Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected by Saturday morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flagler Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft Volusia/Brevard county line to Flagler Beach, Florida...4 to 6 ft Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina... 5 to 7 ft Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from the Volusia/Brevard county line, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from northeast Florida to eastern North Carolina, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in life- threatening flooding and flash flooding. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across parts of the South Carolina and Georgia coastal plains late this afternoon and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 39
2016-10-07 22:45:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 072045 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 2100 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL COASTAL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE. THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SURF CITY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 80.7W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......160NE 140SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 80.7W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 80.7W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 31.7N 80.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.8N 76.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.0N 74.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 27.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 26.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 80.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-07 21:56:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE MATTHEW CAUSES DEVASTATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 the center of MATTHEW was located near 30.2, -80.7 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-07 20:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...3 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...MATTHEW CONTINUES TO LASH THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... As of 3:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 the center of MATTHEW was located near 29.9, -80.7 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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