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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 15

2015-06-14 10:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140832 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0900 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 100.3W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 100.3W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 100.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.3N 101.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.9N 102.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.5N 103.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.0N 104.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.0N 105.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.5N 105.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.5N 106.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 100.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane CARLOS Graphics

2015-06-14 07:40:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Jun 2015 05:40:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Jun 2015 03:03:44 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)

2015-06-14 07:39:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CARLOS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 the center of CARLOS was located near 15.7, -100.2 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 14A

2015-06-14 07:39:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140539 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 100 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 ...CARLOS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 100.2W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 100.2 West. Carlos is drifting toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). Carlos is expected to turn toward the northwest later tonight. A west- northwest to northwest motion at an increasing forward speed is expected later today into Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Carlos is expected to approach the coast of southwestern Mexico late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area later today. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area late on Monday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce 6 to 10 inches of rain across the southwestern coast of Mexico through Tuesday with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. The states of Mexico affected include Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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