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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-13 22:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 the center of CARLOS was located near 15.2, -100.0 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 13
2015-06-13 22:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 132033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 100.0W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana and a Tropical Storm Warning from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to west of Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 100.0 West. Carlos is drifting toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). Carlos is expected to move turn toward the northwest by early Sunday. A west-northwest to northwest motion at an increasing forward speed is expected late Sunday into Monday the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Carlos is expected to approach the coast of southwestern Mexico late Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area by early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area late on Monday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across the southwestern coast of Mexico through Tuesday with locally higher amounts around 6 inches. The states of Mexico affected include Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 13
2015-06-13 22:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 132033 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 2100 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.0W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.0W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 99.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.6N 100.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.1N 101.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.7N 102.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.3N 103.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.4N 104.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 106.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 100.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-13 19:39:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Jun 2015 17:39:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Jun 2015 15:03:44 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-13 19:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS STILL MEANDERING SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 the center of CARLOS was located near 15.0, -100.0 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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