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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-06-14 04:46:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140246 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 Carlos has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery at the moment. While an eye occasionally appears, the surrounding convection is asymmetric with little convection to the northwest of the eye. This asymmetry is also seen in data from the Mexican radar at Acapulco, which shows strong bands to the east and weak bands to the west of the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 77 kt, so the initial intensity remains 75 kt. The initial motion is 345/2. Water vapor imagery suggests that the forecast mid to upper-level ridge is now developing over central Mexico. This should cause Carlos to turn northwestward or west-northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours. After a couple of days, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken as a mid to upper-level trough drops southward across northwestern Mexico. This should result in Carlos turning more northward on the east side of the trough. While the dynamical models generally agree on the overall pattern, there is significant disagreement on whether Carlos will make landfall in Mexico. The GFS and ECMWF models call for the center to turn northward quickly enough to make landfall in the Manzanillo-Cabo Corrientes area. On the other hand, the Canadian, UKMET, and NAVGEM models keep the cyclone offshore. The new forecast track, which is similar to the previous track, generally follows the GFS/ECMWF solutions, showing a landfall near Cabo Corrientes in about 72 hours and a second landfall by 120 hours in northwestern Mexico. Vertical shear is diminishing over Carlos, and the system is expected to remain over warm water until landfall. This should allow continued strengthening until landfall. However, the intensity guidance does not show a lot of strengthening, and Carlos' struggles to maintain an eyewall suggest some negative factor at work such as dry air entrainment. The new intensity forecast is slightly weaker than the previous forecast in calling for a peak intensity of 90 kt in about 36 hours. Landfall in western Mexico should cause considerable weakening and disruption of the circulation, and thus the intensity forecast show significant weakening after 48 hours. The intensity forecast is of low confidence due to the uncertainly in the amount of land interaction and why Carlos is currently struggling to intensify. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.5N 100.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 15.9N 100.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 16.4N 101.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 16.9N 102.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 17.5N 103.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 19.5N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0000Z 21.5N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 19/0000Z 23.5N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2015-06-14 04:45:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 140245 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0300 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 1(17) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 19(22) 12(34) 1(35) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 29(36) 8(44) 1(45) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 15(23) 31(54) 6(60) X(60) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 19(23) 3(26) X(26) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) MANZANILLO 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 18(30) 28(58) 4(62) 1(63) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 2(25) X(25) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) L CARDENAS 34 2 34(36) 31(67) 8(75) 5(80) X(80) X(80) L CARDENAS 50 X 4( 4) 22(26) 9(35) 4(39) X(39) X(39) L CARDENAS 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) ZIHUATANEJO 34 5 51(56) 16(72) 4(76) 3(79) X(79) X(79) ZIHUATANEJO 50 1 12(13) 15(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ACAPULCO 34 51 13(64) 2(66) 1(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) ACAPULCO 50 6 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ACAPULCO 64 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 7 4(11) 3(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 13(34) 1(35) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-14 04:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 the center of CARLOS was located near 15.5, -100.1 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 14
2015-06-14 04:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140245 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 ...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 100.1W ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 100.1 West. Carlos is drifting toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). Carlos is expected to turn toward the northwest later tonight. A west- northwest to northwest motion at an increasing forward speed is expected late Sunday into Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Carlos is expected to approach the coast of southwestern Mexico late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area by early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area late on Monday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce 6-10 inches of rain across the southwestern coast of Mexico through Tuesday with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. The states of Mexico affected include Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 14
2015-06-14 04:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140245 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0300 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 100.1W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 100.1W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 100.0W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.9N 100.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.4N 101.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.9N 102.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N 103.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N 105.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 106.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 106.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 100.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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