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Hurricane CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-14 01:40:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Jun 2015 23:40:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Jun 2015 21:03:48 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-14 01:37:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OUTER BANDS OF CARLOS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 the center of CARLOS was located near 15.4, -100.0 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 13A
2015-06-14 01:37:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 132337 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 700 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 ...OUTER BANDS OF CARLOS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 100.0W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to west of Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 100.0 West. Carlos is drifting toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). Carlos is expected to turn toward the northwest by early Sunday. A west-northwest to northwest motion at an increasing forward speed is expected late Sunday into Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Carlos is expected to approach the coast of southwestern Mexico late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area by early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area late on Monday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across the southwestern coast of Mexico through Tuesday with locally higher amounts around 6 inches. The states of Mexico affected include Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-13 22:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Jun 2015 20:34:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Jun 2015 20:33:50 GMT
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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-06-13 22:34:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132034 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 Satellite images show that Carlos is becoming stronger. The eye is becoming better defined, with a more symmetric appearance on the latest infrared pictures. Radar data also shows a more complete eyewall, although it is still open on the north side at times. Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB support an intensity of 75 kt for the initial wind speed. Over the past 24 hours, Carlos has drifted northeastward toward a weakness in the mid-level ridge over Mexico related to a trough over the Gulf of Mexico. All models continue to insist that the ridge will strengthen soon, forcing Carlos more toward the west-northwest or northwest over the next couple of days. The ridge is expected to weaken again due to a trough over northwestern Mexico, which should cause Carlos to turn more to northwest by late Monday. However, since any significant westward motion has yet to materialize, the guidance continues to show a greater threat to Mexico, with many models now having a landfall within a few days time. Thus, the NHC forecast is moved to the right in agreement with the model consensus. Although the center is still offshore of Mexico through 36 hours, the hurricane-force wind radii are too close for comfort, and therefore the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the southwestern coast. Microwave data show that the low- and mid-level circulations of Carlos remain a little displaced from one another due to northeasterly shear. However, this shear is forecast to get rather light over the next 24 hours while the hurricane moves over waters near 30C. It appears that the environment overall is becoming more supportive of significant strengthening than earlier anticipated, assuming that Carlos moves as forecast and does not suffer from its own cold wake. This favorable environment is also reflected in the SHIPS rapid intensification index showing a 30 percent chance of a 30 kt increase over the next 24 hours. Thus, the NHC forecast is raised from the previous one, above most of the guidance, and is closest to the LGEM model. The intensity forecast at 72 hours and beyond is quite uncertain since it depends on exactly how much land interaction occurs with Carlos. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.2N 100.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.6N 100.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.1N 101.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 16.7N 102.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 17.3N 103.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 19.4N 104.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/1800Z 21.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 18/1800Z 23.0N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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