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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 39
2020-09-22 04:48:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220248 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter found Teddy a little stronger this evening. Flight level peak wind was 111 kt in the east quadrant and the highest observed SFMR wind was 69 kt. A blend of these data yields an initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. Teddy is accelerating toward the north in response to a mid- to upper tropospheric mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest. Dynamic forcing produced by the aforementioned baroclinic system and warm (27-28C) waters associated with the Gulf Stream could induce a short period of strengthening during the next few hours, or so. Through the remaining portion of the forecast period, Teddy will traverse cooler oceanic temperatures north of the Gulf Stream and lose its baroclinic support inducing a gradual weakening trend as the post-tropical cyclone quickly moves over eastern Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Newfoundland. After that time, Teddy should become absorbed by a larger non-tropical, high latitude low pressure system. There still remains much uncertainty as to whether or not Teddy will complete its extratropical transition prior to reaching Nova Scotia. The global models show the cyclone merged or embedded in the baroclinic zone, but the associated simulated infrared presentation shows Teddy maintaining a rather small warm, inner core. Regardless of it classification during that time, high winds, heavy rain, storm surge and destructive waves are still predicted for the south coast of Nova Scotia. Teddy's horizontal wind profile is forecast to nearly double during the next couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with the aforementioned baroclinic system. Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the near shore waters of the northeast United States. The forecast wind radii at the 24 hour period and beyond are based on the RVCN Wind Radii Consensus model that consists of a bias-corrected average of the global and regional models. Please see products from your local office for more information about marine hazards, including extremely dangerous rip currents expected over much of the western Atlantic beaches. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late Tuesday through Thursday, where direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge are expected. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 35.6N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 38.4N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 41.1N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 44.6N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 49.0N 58.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 24/1200Z 52.8N 54.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/0000Z 58.1N 51.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-22 04:47:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 02:47:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 21:25:50 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-22 04:47:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND TEDDY STRONGER... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 21 the center of Teddy was located near 35.6, -61.5 with movement N at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 39
2020-09-22 04:47:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220247 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND TEDDY STRONGER... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.6N 61.5W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence * Magdalen Islands * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 61.5 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion is expected overnight followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. Teddy should turn toward the north-northeast and move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late Wednesday into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy could gain a little more strength overnight, but should weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical cyclone near Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2020-09-22 04:47:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 220247 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 10(10) 21(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 12(12) 43(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 17(17) 48(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 4( 4) 54(58) 12(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) 14(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X 1( 1) 48(49) 26(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) 10(10) 22(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 28(28) 49(77) 2(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 32(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X 21(21) 36(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 15(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MONCTON NB 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BERMUDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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