je.st
news
Tag: teddy
Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-21 04:53:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 02:53:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 02:53:17 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
teddy
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 35
2020-09-21 04:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 210251 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 Teddy's satellite presentation has changed little during the past several hours albeit some warming of the eye. The 53rd Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters recorded a central pressure this evening of 963 mb, unchanged from the previous mission, and the Dvorak subjective intensity estimates haven't changed either. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 90 kt for this advisory. There is a chance, within the next 24 hours, that Teddy could strengthen a bit due to dynamic forcing as a result of the approaching baroclinic zone moving off of the northeast coast of the United States. In Fact, the HCCA intensity model shows a peak of 95 kt at the 24 hour period. By Tuesday afternoon, however, increasing southwesterly shear associated with the rapidly approaching mid-latitude major shortwave trough, from the northwest, should induce weakening. Because Teddy is a very large and strong tropical cyclone, only gradual weakening is predicted. By mid period, the large-scale models agree that Teddy will merge with the aforementioned trough and associated frontal zone and complete its extratropical cyclone transition south of Nova Scotia Tuesday evening. Teddy is still forecast to be a very large and powerful extratropical cyclone as it approaches, Nova Scotia at that time. Wind, rain, surf and storm surge hazards are expected to spread over an extensive portion of Atlantic Canada mid-week. The forecast wind radii at the 36 hour period and beyond, are based on the RVCN Wind Radii Consensus model that consists of a bias-corrected average of the global and regional models. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 5 kt. The hurricane is likely to turn northward Monday morning and continue in this general motion through Wednesday morning. Around the 60 hour period, a turn north-northeastward is forecast ahead of yet another mid-latitude pulse moving into eastern Canada. No significant adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast and it lies in between the surprisingly tightly clustered model guidance. Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water. Key Messages: 1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning overnight and could continue into Monday evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 29.4N 63.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 30.9N 63.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 38.5N 63.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 41.3N 64.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 48.6N 59.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/0000Z 57.4N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-21 04:51:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TEDDY TURNING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 20 the center of Teddy was located near 29.4, -63.6 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
teddy
at5al202020
Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 35
2020-09-21 04:51:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 210251 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...TEDDY TURNING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 63.6W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lower East Pubnico to Canso Nova Scotia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 63.6 West. Teddy is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a northward turn is expected Monday. This general motion should continue through Tuesday evening. Teddy is approaching Bermuda from the southeast, and the center should pass east of the island Monday morning. Teddy is forecast to be approaching Nova Scotia late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible Monday night while Teddy begins to interact with an approaching frontal system. Although gradual weakening is forecast to begin mid-week, the cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda overnight and could continue into Monday night. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2020-09-21 04:51:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 210251 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 4(26) X(26) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 5(41) X(41) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 51(51) 4(55) X(55) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) X(19) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 58(62) 1(63) X(63) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) X(26) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 58(61) 2(63) X(63) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 36(59) X(59) X(59) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 43(76) 1(77) X(77) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 39(44) X(44) X(44) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 17(50) X(50) X(50) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) X(32) X(32) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) X(25) X(25) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 12(25) X(25) X(25) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 34 78 15(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) BERMUDA 50 16 31(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BERMUDA 64 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Sites : [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] next »