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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 36A

2020-09-21 13:52:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 211152 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 36A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 800 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING TEDDY... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 63.0W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lower East Pubnico to Main-a-Dieu Nova Scotia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 63.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). Although some fluctuations in heading are likely, the hurricane is expected to move generally northward through Tuesday evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Wednesday. The center of Teddy will pass east of Bermuda today, and then approach Nova Scotia late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin mid-week, but the cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone when it nears Nova Scotia by Wednesday morning. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda into Monday night. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Teddy Graphics

2020-09-21 10:48:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 08:48:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 08:48:22 GMT

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 36

2020-09-21 10:42:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 210842 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 Where Teddy once had a ragged eye has now become a dry slot, an indication that its eyewall is becoming less defined. Some southwesterly shear and the fact that Teddy is beginning to move over the cold wake of former Hurricane Paulette are probably contributing to the degradation of Teddy's structure. Based on this trend, the intensity estimate is lowered slightly to 85 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Teddy later this morning and will give a better assessment of the hurricane's winds. For now, little change was made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. Teddy is beginning to interact with a large deep layer trough and frontal system that will play a big role in its evolution during the next couple of days. For the remainder of today, Teddy should remain fairly distinct from the front, moving east and northeast of Bermuda. As it begins to merge with that system on Tuesday, a slight deflection toward the north-northwest is likely, and it is possible Teddy could quickly become post-tropical if it merges with the front at that time. The most recent ECMWF and GFS runs suggest that Teddy will maintain a warm core a little longer than than that as it moves over the Gulf Stream. Regardless of its exact classification, once Teddy moves north of the Gulf Stream and over much cooler waters, it is forecast to weaken below hurricane strength and become extratropical. Even with a decrease in its highest winds, Teddy will likely be producing a large area of tropical-storm-force winds when it approaches Atlantic Canada in a couple of days. After moving over Atlantic Canada, Teddy is expected to accelerate northeastward and ahead of, and then merge with, another mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest. Teddy's size will likely increase substantially during the next couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with the aforementioned frontal system. Gale force winds are likely along portions of the near shore waters of the northeast U.S. Please see products from your local office for more information about marine hazards. Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water. Key Messages: 1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda today. Wind gusts near tropical-storm-force have been reported on the island and tropical storm conditions could continue into Monday evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 30.3N 63.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 32.6N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 36.7N 62.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 39.7N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 42.6N 63.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 23/1800Z 46.2N 61.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 24/0600Z 50.0N 57.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36

2020-09-21 10:42:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 210842 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) X(39) X(39) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 60(61) X(61) X(61) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 68(70) X(70) X(70) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 57(71) X(71) X(71) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) X(33) X(33) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 60(75) X(75) X(75) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) X(37) X(37) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 34(42) 23(65) X(65) X(65) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) X(21) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 46(54) 22(76) X(76) X(76) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 23(39) X(39) X(39) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 10(10) 26(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) X(27) X(27) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 82 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) BERMUDA 50 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

2020-09-21 10:41:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LARGE HURRICANE TEDDY NOW HEADING NORTH... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 21 the center of Teddy was located near 30.3, -63.2 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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