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Tropical Storm Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2020-09-15 10:55:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 479 FONT15 KNHC 150855 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

2020-09-15 10:55:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TEDDY EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 15 the center of Teddy was located near 13.7, -46.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Teddy Public Advisory Number 11

2020-09-15 10:55:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150855 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...TEDDY EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 46.0W ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 46.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a west-northwest to northwest track is anticipated during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast for the next several days, and Teddy is likely to become a hurricane late today and could reach major hurricane strength in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 11

2020-09-15 10:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150854 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 46.0W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 20SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 46.0W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 45.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.4N 47.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 48.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 35SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.5N 56.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 26.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 46.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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