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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2020-09-16 22:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 162051 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 33(62) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 23(32) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 18

2020-09-16 22:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 162050 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 50.8W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 90NW. 34 KT.......190NE 100SE 70SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 50.8W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 50.4W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.6N 52.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 110SE 70SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 53.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.5N 54.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.0N 56.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.8N 58.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.5N 60.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 29.5N 63.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 33.3N 64.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 50.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Teddy Graphics

2020-09-16 16:39:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 14:39:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 15:39:25 GMT

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 17

2020-09-16 16:38:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 161437 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Teddy's overall appearance has changed little over the past several hours. Microwave and infrared satellite images depict a well-defined inner core with an eye evident in the microwave imagery. However, visible imagery reveals that the eye remains cloud filled. Over the past few hours, the coldest cloud tops and have become confined to the western portion of the circulation, which could be the early signs of the cyclone experiencing some westerly wind shear. The latest satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged from 6 h ago, and therefore the initial intensity will remain 85 kt. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional strengthening over the next 18-24 h, and with the inner-core well defined, rapid intensification could resume shortly. By 36 h, increasing westerly wind shear and drier air should limit any further intensification, and possibly induce some weakening. Later on in the forecast period, Teddy could encounter some cooler waters due to upwelling caused by Paulette. This could also attribute to additional weakening. The latest NHC forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one, and is on the high end of the guidance. It should be noted that if the rapid intensification that has paused recently doe not resume soon, adjustments to the intensity forecast will be necessary. Teddy continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. This motion is forecast to continue for the next few days, as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Late in the forecast period, the portion of the ridge north of Teddy is expected to erode as a mid-latitude trough digs across the northeastern United States. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn north-northwest and possibly north by day 5. The track guidance is tightly clustered through day 3, then the spread increases after that time, likely due to how the models are handling the approaching trough. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and is near the various multi-model track consensus aids. On the forecast track, Teddy could make a close to approach to Bermuda in about 5 days. However, based on average 5-day track and intensity errors, it is too soon to know what type of impacts the cyclone could have on the island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 16.5N 49.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 17.5N 50.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 19.0N 52.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 20.4N 53.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 21.9N 55.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 23.5N 56.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 25.1N 58.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 31.7N 64.1W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2020-09-16 16:37:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 161436 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 35(51) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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