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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 19

2020-09-17 04:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 170242 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 51.5W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......220NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 51.5W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 51.2W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.3N 54.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.8N 55.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 150SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 57.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.3N 59.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.0N 61.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 30.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 35.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 51.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Teddy Graphics

2020-09-16 22:53:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 20:53:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 20:53:59 GMT

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 18

2020-09-16 22:52:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 162052 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Recent satellite imagery is suggesting that Teddy is undergoing some westerly vertical wind shear, as indicated by outflow being more limited in the western portion of the circulation. The latest UW-CIMSS shear analysis suggests the magnitude of this shear could be about 10-15 kt, which could help to explain the lack of increase in organization of the cyclone today. The most recent Dvorak satellite intensity estimates provided CI values of 4.5-5.0, indicating that the initial intensity is still around 85 kt. The environmental conditions are not forecast to change much for Teddy over the next couple of days. The cyclone is forecast to move over warm waters within a somewhat dry atmospheric environment, while moderate shear is expected to continue due to an upper trough to its northwest. Based on these only somewhat favorable conditions for strengthening, along with what we have witnessed with the lack of intensification today, the NHC intensity forecast over the next few days is being lowered. Beyond day 3, there is evidence to suggest that Teddy may move over some cooler waters due to upwelling caused by Paulette. And, by day 4 global models are forecasting a further increase in vertical wind shear. These two factors should cause the cyclone to weaken late in the forecast period. This updated intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA. Teddy is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. This motion is forecast to continue for the next few days, as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Late in the forecast period, the portion of the ridge north of Teddy is expected to erode as a mid-latitude trough digs across the northeastern United States. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn north-northwest and possibly north by day 5. The track guidance is tightly clustered through day 3, but increases quite a bit after that time, likely due to how the models are handling the approaching trough. The latest GFS delays a turn and shows a more westerly track, with the cyclone southwest of Bermuda by day 5, while the rest of the global models turn the system north sooner and take the system just east of Bermuda. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and is near the various multi-model track consensus aids. On the forecast track, Teddy could make a close to approach to Bermuda in about 5 days. However, based on the model spread at that time frame and average track error of about 200 n mi at 120 h, it is certainly too soon to know what impacts Teddy may have on the island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 17.5N 50.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 18.6N 52.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 20.0N 53.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 21.5N 54.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 23.0N 56.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 24.8N 58.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 26.5N 60.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 29.5N 63.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 33.3N 64.6W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

2020-09-16 22:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TEDDY TAKES A BREAK FROM STRENGTHENING TODAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY MORE SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 16 the center of Teddy was located near 17.5, -50.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 18

2020-09-16 22:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 162051 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...TEDDY TAKES A BREAK FROM STRENGTHENING TODAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY MORE SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 50.8W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 50.8 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Teddy is expected become a major hurricane during that time. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

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